Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Delusion Of Perpetual Motion
Link to: The Delusion of Perpetual Motion“I am definitely concerned. When was [the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio or CAPE] higher than it is now? I can tell you: 1929, 2000 and 2007. Very low interest rates help to explain the high CAPE. That doesn’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Endgame Is Forced Liquidation
While the attention of investors is focused on the short-run market outlook in what is already a mature bull market advance, it’s crucial to understand the endgame to this overvalued, overbought, overbullish, overleveraged episode of market history....
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence And Enthusiasm
The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Are Corporate Balance Sheets Really The Strongest In History?
It is freely accepted by investors as fact that U.S. corporate balance sheets are the stronger than ever before in history. This view is largely driven by the significant amount of cash (checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, commercial...
Money and Finance
Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen ONE Other Time in History
Link to a larger image of the chart mentioned below HERE.
Positive net worth is the situation when investors have little money borrowed and plenty of cash in their brokerage accounts (2003 & 2009).
Negative net worth is the situation when investors have little large amounts of money borrowed (on margin) and little cash in their brokerage accounts (2000, 2007, 2011 & now).
The above chart reflects that only one other time in history has negative net worth been this low, which was the tech bubble back in 2000. The prior two times that negative net worth were this low was 2007 (50% S&P 500 decline) and 2011 (17% S&P 500 decline).
The above chart of Credit Balance/Net Worth shouldn't be used as a market timing tool, yet if history holds true, it has reflected times when investors should load up the truck in stocks (Positive net worth was high at the 2003 & 2009 lows) and it did reflect times when investors should have lowered stock exposure (Negative net worth was low in 2000 & 2007).
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Delusion Of Perpetual Motion
Link to: The Delusion of Perpetual Motion“I am definitely concerned. When was [the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio or CAPE] higher than it is now? I can tell you: 1929, 2000 and 2007. Very low interest rates help to explain the high CAPE. That doesn’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Endgame Is Forced Liquidation
While the attention of investors is focused on the short-run market outlook in what is already a mature bull market advance, it’s crucial to understand the endgame to this overvalued, overbought, overbullish, overleveraged episode of market history....
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence And Enthusiasm
The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Are Corporate Balance Sheets Really The Strongest In History?
It is freely accepted by investors as fact that U.S. corporate balance sheets are the stronger than ever before in history. This view is largely driven by the significant amount of cash (checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, commercial...