Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: This Time Is Different, Yet With The Same Ending
Link to: This Time is Different, Yet with the Same EndingThe Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing has produced a historically prolonged period of speculative yield-seeking by investors starved for safe return. The problem with simply...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Diva Is Already Singing
Regardless of last week’s slight tapering of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing, speculators appear intent on completing the same bubble pattern that has attended a score of previous financial bubbles in equity markets, commodities,...
- Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen One Other Time In History
Link to a larger image of the chart mentioned below HERE. Positive net worth is the situation when investors have little money borrowed and plenty of cash in their brokerage accounts (2003 & 2009). Negative net worth is the situation when investors...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Low-water Mark
As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we’ve observed in a century of data. There is no way to view this as something other than a warning, but it’s also a warning that I...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence And Enthusiasm
The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged into most negative 1% of market history. Yet despite the intervening monetary heroics, history suggests not that these conditions will persist without resolution, but instead that their resolution is likely to be that much worse. Anyone who followed me in 2000 or 2007 will easily recall a similar frustration before the bottom fell out of the market on each occasion. I can’t assure that the same will occur in the present case, but I believe it would be reckless to assume that the Fed has these risks covered. With margin debt over 2% of GDP as it was on three prior occasions – 2000, 2007 and early 2011 – it’s clear that investors are all-in when it comes to faith in the Fed. Still, when an investment thesis becomes so universally embraced and so apparently easy to follow that anyone who resists is considered foolish (as was the case with tech stocks in 2000), my risk aversion needle hits the red zone.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: This Time Is Different, Yet With The Same Ending
Link to: This Time is Different, Yet with the Same EndingThe Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing has produced a historically prolonged period of speculative yield-seeking by investors starved for safe return. The problem with simply...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Diva Is Already Singing
Regardless of last week’s slight tapering of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing, speculators appear intent on completing the same bubble pattern that has attended a score of previous financial bubbles in equity markets, commodities,...
- Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen One Other Time In History
Link to a larger image of the chart mentioned below HERE. Positive net worth is the situation when investors have little money borrowed and plenty of cash in their brokerage accounts (2003 & 2009). Negative net worth is the situation when investors...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Low-water Mark
As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we’ve observed in a century of data. There is no way to view this as something other than a warning, but it’s also a warning that I...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence And Enthusiasm
The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007...