Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence Abounds
Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported that the 3-week average equity...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It
Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Baked In The Cake
“I can feel it coming, S.E.C. or not, a whole new round of disastrous speculation… and finally the inevitable crash. I don’t know when it will come, but I can feel it coming, and, damn it, I don’t know what to do about it.” - Bernard Lasker,...
- Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen One Other Time In History
Link to a larger image of the chart mentioned below HERE. Positive net worth is the situation when investors have little money borrowed and plenty of cash in their brokerage accounts (2003 & 2009). Negative net worth is the situation when investors...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Endgame is Forced Liquidation
While the attention of investors is focused on the short-run market outlook in what is already a mature bull market advance, it’s crucial to understand the endgame to this overvalued, overbought, overbullish, overleveraged episode of market history. That endgame will be forced liquidation, as declining prices force leveraged investors to sell – voluntarily or otherwise. I noted back in January that margin debt had surged above 2% of GDP for the fourth time in history (the other three being 2000, 2007, and February 2011 - less severe, but still followed by an 18% market correction). In February, NYSE margin debt (the amount that investors have borrowed to purchase NYSE-traded stocks on margin) reached $366 billion, and there’s a fair chance that given the continuation of that advance in the subsequent weeks, more recent margin debt will have accumulated to a total that eclipses the July 2007 record of $381 billion.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence Abounds
Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported that the 3-week average equity...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It
Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Baked In The Cake
“I can feel it coming, S.E.C. or not, a whole new round of disastrous speculation… and finally the inevitable crash. I don’t know when it will come, but I can feel it coming, and, damn it, I don’t know what to do about it.” - Bernard Lasker,...
- Margin Debt Hitting Levels Only Seen One Other Time In History
Link to a larger image of the chart mentioned below HERE. Positive net worth is the situation when investors have little money borrowed and plenty of cash in their brokerage accounts (2003 & 2009). Negative net worth is the situation when investors...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...