Money and Finance
- Links
Daniel Kahneman: ‘What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence’ (LINK) Related book: Thinking, Fast and SlowChris Pavese's idea presentation on SeaWorld Entertainment (video) (LINK) Related book: Walt's Revolution!:...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Exit Strategy
Link to: Exit Strategy The S&P 500 set a marginal new high on Friday, in the context of a broad rollover in momentum thus far this year that we view as likely – though of course not certain – to represent a broad cyclical peak of the sort that...
- John Mauldin: Forecast 2014: The Capes Of Hope
Link to: Forecast 2014: The CAPEs of HopeLast week's letter focused on my 2014 outlook for the US stock market and highlighted an important, but controversial, measure for long-term valuations: Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings...
- The Q Ratio And Market Valuation: Monthly Update
Via Doug Short: Link to: The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update ...
- Crestmont Market Valuation Update
Via Doug Short: The Crestmont P/E of 19.9 is 45% above its average (arithmetic mean) of 13.7. This valuation level is similar to the 44% we see in the latest S&P Composite regression to trend update and higher than the 26% above mean for the Cyclical...
Money and Finance
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update – By Doug Short
Based on the latest Flow of Funds data, the Q Ratio at the end of the first quarter was 0.96. Now, five months later, the broad market is up about 1.0%. My latest estimate would put the ratio about 38% above its arithmetic mean and 48% above its geometric mean. These numbers are very close to the levels of overvaluation at the end March, which was 37% and 47% above the arithmetic and geometric means, respectively. Of course periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years at a time, so the Q Ratio is not a useful indicator for short-term investment timelines. This metric is more appropriate for formulating expectations for long-term market performance. As we can see in the next chart, the current level of Q has been associated with several market tops in history — the Tech Bubble being the notable exception.
- Links
Daniel Kahneman: ‘What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence’ (LINK) Related book: Thinking, Fast and SlowChris Pavese's idea presentation on SeaWorld Entertainment (video) (LINK) Related book: Walt's Revolution!:...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Exit Strategy
Link to: Exit Strategy The S&P 500 set a marginal new high on Friday, in the context of a broad rollover in momentum thus far this year that we view as likely – though of course not certain – to represent a broad cyclical peak of the sort that...
- John Mauldin: Forecast 2014: The Capes Of Hope
Link to: Forecast 2014: The CAPEs of HopeLast week's letter focused on my 2014 outlook for the US stock market and highlighted an important, but controversial, measure for long-term valuations: Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings...
- The Q Ratio And Market Valuation: Monthly Update
Via Doug Short: Link to: The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update ...
- Crestmont Market Valuation Update
Via Doug Short: The Crestmont P/E of 19.9 is 45% above its average (arithmetic mean) of 13.7. This valuation level is similar to the 44% we see in the latest S&P Composite regression to trend update and higher than the 26% above mean for the Cyclical...