Money and Finance
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- Daniel Kahneman On Confidence
From Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence: “The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story...
- Warren Buffett Quote On Filters
As I've previously mentioned (HERE) how important I think filters are in deliberate practice and achieving expertise in investing, this quote from Warren Buffett during yesterday's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting really struck a chord with me:"Charlie...
- Nassim Taleb Quote
"Narrative, as well as its associated mechanism of salience of the sensational fact, can mess up our projection of the odds." -Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan ...
- Should Science Reporting Have A Standardized Checklist?
A checklist would look something like the following. Every story on new research should include the sample size and highlight where it may be too small to draw general conclusions. Any increase in risk should be reported in absolute terms as well as percentages:...
- Buy Stocks For Their Substance, Not Their Stories
“No, no! The adventures first, explanations take such a dreadful time.” - Lewis Carrol, Alice in WonderlandAt an investor conference a few weeks back, I had the pleasure of hearing a dozen or so companies tell their stories to rooms filled with...
Money and Finance
TEDx Talk - Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of stories
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Related quote:
"You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. If I have to go after what I call the narrative disciplines, my best tool is a narrative. Ideas come and go, stories stay." Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
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Relating this to investing, here are a couple of questions I have on my investing checklist about this topic:
- Am I falling for a good story?
- Are you sure you're not falling for the confirmation bias? (i.e. Have you approached the facts and data with a suspension of belief, rather than looking to confirm a theory or investment case/story?)
- Daniel Kahneman On Confidence
From Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence: “The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story...
- Warren Buffett Quote On Filters
As I've previously mentioned (HERE) how important I think filters are in deliberate practice and achieving expertise in investing, this quote from Warren Buffett during yesterday's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting really struck a chord with me:"Charlie...
- Nassim Taleb Quote
"Narrative, as well as its associated mechanism of salience of the sensational fact, can mess up our projection of the odds." -Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan ...
- Should Science Reporting Have A Standardized Checklist?
A checklist would look something like the following. Every story on new research should include the sample size and highlight where it may be too small to draw general conclusions. Any increase in risk should be reported in absolute terms as well as percentages:...
- Buy Stocks For Their Substance, Not Their Stories
“No, no! The adventures first, explanations take such a dreadful time.” - Lewis Carrol, Alice in WonderlandAt an investor conference a few weeks back, I had the pleasure of hearing a dozen or so companies tell their stories to rooms filled with...