Money and Finance
From Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence:
This also reminded me of something Peter Bevelin mentioned in one of my interviews with him:
- Charlie Munger Quote
Via my 2009 interview with Peter Bevelin:“We use a lot of experience and do it [investment returns] in our heads. We don’t like complexity and we distrust other systems and think it many times leads to false confidence. The harder you work, the more...
- Charlie Munger On The Return Hurdle At Berkshire...
Via Whitney Tilson’s notes from the 2006 Wesco Annual Meeting:We don’t do a lot of involved math with schedules of investments. Certainly we expect a decent return or we don’t do it. We use a lot of experience and do it in our heads. We distrust...
- Charlie Munger Quote (complexity And Overconfidence)
Mentioned by Peter Bevelin in my 2009 interview with him (and it reminds me of THIS Warren Buffett quote from this year's Berkshire Meeting): “We don’t like complexity and we distrust other systems and think it many times leads to false confidence....
- Tedx Talk - Tyler Cowen: Be Suspicious Of Stories
Link .................... Related quote: "You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. If I have to go after what I call the narrative disciplines,...
- Daniel Kahneman: Bias, Blindness And How We Truly Think
Via Simoleon Sense: Link to: Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think .................... Related book: Thinking, Fast and Slow Related previous post: Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence - By Daniel Kahneman ...
Money and Finance
Daniel Kahneman on confidence
From Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence:
“The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.”..........
This also reminded me of something Peter Bevelin mentioned in one of my interviews with him:
On the other hand, when reading, we must constantly watch out for the sensemaking trap (19 in my book) since we are so easily influenced when we are told stories or given information in a “story-format.”
- Charlie Munger Quote
Via my 2009 interview with Peter Bevelin:“We use a lot of experience and do it [investment returns] in our heads. We don’t like complexity and we distrust other systems and think it many times leads to false confidence. The harder you work, the more...
- Charlie Munger On The Return Hurdle At Berkshire...
Via Whitney Tilson’s notes from the 2006 Wesco Annual Meeting:We don’t do a lot of involved math with schedules of investments. Certainly we expect a decent return or we don’t do it. We use a lot of experience and do it in our heads. We distrust...
- Charlie Munger Quote (complexity And Overconfidence)
Mentioned by Peter Bevelin in my 2009 interview with him (and it reminds me of THIS Warren Buffett quote from this year's Berkshire Meeting): “We don’t like complexity and we distrust other systems and think it many times leads to false confidence....
- Tedx Talk - Tyler Cowen: Be Suspicious Of Stories
Link .................... Related quote: "You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. If I have to go after what I call the narrative disciplines,...
- Daniel Kahneman: Bias, Blindness And How We Truly Think
Via Simoleon Sense: Link to: Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think .................... Related book: Thinking, Fast and Slow Related previous post: Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence - By Daniel Kahneman ...