Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Delusion Of Perpetual Motion
Link to: The Delusion of Perpetual Motion“I am definitely concerned. When was [the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio or CAPE] higher than it is now? I can tell you: 1929, 2000 and 2007. Very low interest rates help to explain the high CAPE. That doesn’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Short Horizon, Long Horizon
Over history, and including the past decade, properly normalized valuations have remained a powerful guidepost for full-cycle and long-term returns, particularly on the horizon of 7-10 years. On that front, the current price/revenue multiple of the S&P...
- Buttonwood: Back To The Shiller P/e
ONE key reason why I have been pessimistic about the outlook for the US stockmarket is based on the use of the Shiller price-earnings ratio. Ben Graham, the doyen of securities analysis, devised a version of this measure, but it has become associated...
- Does The Shiller-pe Work In Emerging Markets?
Found via Mebane Faber. We test the reliability of the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) or Shiller PE as a forecasting and valuation tool for 35 countries including emerging markets. We find that the Shiller-PE is a reliable long-term valuation indicator...
- Shiller Says U.s. Home Prices In Seasonal Pattern (video)
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the U.S. housing market and seasonal patterns affecting prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 4 percent in December,...
Money and Finance
Shiller and Barclays launch equity indices
Barclays and Robert Shiller, the Yale economist, are to launch a series of US equity indices to identify undervalued sectors by comparing stocks’ long-term value in a way that looks through short-term swings in profitability.
The indices are based on a valuation measure designed by Mr Shiller and economist John Campbell called the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, a metric that has gained a wide following since Mr Shiller successfully used it to predict the bursting of the technology stocks bubble in 2000.
The launch of the Shiller Barclays CAPE Index Family marks the latest foray into financial products for Mr Shiller, an academic who has researched financial markets for more than four decades.
Barclays said the three indices will be aimed at long-term, institutional investors and linked to a range of “over-the-counter” instruments including swaps, structured notes, certificate of deposits and so-called Delta One products.
“Predicting the market in the short run is an art and not a science. We are doing something systematic here intended for long-term investors,” Mr Shiller said.
He added: “Well informed people have always had an interest in value investing. We are putting forward a better analysis on the market in a way that respects the complexities of history, psychology and human behaviour.”
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Related link: Robert Shiller Interview on NPR
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Delusion Of Perpetual Motion
Link to: The Delusion of Perpetual Motion“I am definitely concerned. When was [the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio or CAPE] higher than it is now? I can tell you: 1929, 2000 and 2007. Very low interest rates help to explain the high CAPE. That doesn’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Short Horizon, Long Horizon
Over history, and including the past decade, properly normalized valuations have remained a powerful guidepost for full-cycle and long-term returns, particularly on the horizon of 7-10 years. On that front, the current price/revenue multiple of the S&P...
- Buttonwood: Back To The Shiller P/e
ONE key reason why I have been pessimistic about the outlook for the US stockmarket is based on the use of the Shiller price-earnings ratio. Ben Graham, the doyen of securities analysis, devised a version of this measure, but it has become associated...
- Does The Shiller-pe Work In Emerging Markets?
Found via Mebane Faber. We test the reliability of the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) or Shiller PE as a forecasting and valuation tool for 35 countries including emerging markets. We find that the Shiller-PE is a reliable long-term valuation indicator...
- Shiller Says U.s. Home Prices In Seasonal Pattern (video)
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the U.S. housing market and seasonal patterns affecting prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 4 percent in December,...