Money and Finance
Never eager to spend large amounts of money, my attention quickly turned to the faux leather options. Much to my delight, these were much cheaper. For a fraction of the price of a real leather couch, we could get the same size and design.
And besides, I reasoned, visitors wouldn't be able to tell the difference anyway. Why spend the extra money?
It seemed like a sweet deal at the time, but things have changed.
Today, my "deep value" couch is falling apart -- literally -- and I find myself back in the market for a new couch. Had I originally paid up for a high-quality leather couch, I probably wouldn't be in my current predicament. The poor man pays twice, indeed.
My mistake was this -- I only considered the price of the faux leather couch relative to the real leather couch without considering the prices relative to their respective quality.
As investors looking to buy stocks on the cheap, we often fall into the same trap -- we erroneously think a company with a lower multiple presents a better deal than one with a high multiple. While that may hold true when we're comparing two identical assets, the rule breaks down when we're comparing assets of different quality.
While the market isn't perfectly efficient, it is generally efficient, so more times than not tomorrow's great companies won't be found using a low price/earnings screen. If you want a chance to own a few of tomorrow's great companies, then, you'll need to eliminate your aversion to paying premium multiples.
As you might deduce from my story about couch shopping, this is something I've struggled with in my own portfolio. On a number of occasions, I've had a case of sticker shock and balked at investing in promising companies only to watch those stocks push higher as their competitive advantages, pricing power, and earnings growth more than justified their premium prices.
The risk with buying premium-multiple stocks is that today's premium-multiple will be tomorrow's average-multiple and your returns will be decimated by a re-rating. Reversion to the mean is a powerful force, of course.
As with any investment, it's critical to get a feel for the market's current expectations for the company and weigh them against your own. Equally important is the ability to tell the difference between a great company from an average company. If you're confident in your evaluation of both factors, you shouldn't shrink from paying up for quality stocks.
Related posts:
Best,
Todd
Follow @ToddWenning
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Future Is Now
Link to: The Future is Now While the evidence may be alarming to some, make no mistake: The median price/revenue multiple for S&P 500 constituents is now significantly higher than at the 2000 market peak. The average price/revenue multiple across...
- Broyhill Asset Management's Thesis On Hospira, Inc.
As equity markets make seemingly daily new highs, it would be easy to accept the current prices of stocks as “truth” but the correct price is impossible to ascertain, given the massive distortion encouraged by relentless and continuous central banks...
- Use The Market's Short-termism To Your Advantage
Here's a general criticism that I often hear about investing in companies with economic moats: Companies with economic moats always look expensive and they trade with premium multiples to the market. How can we invest with a suitable margin-of-safety...
- Dwelling On Quality
In an oped in the FT two years back, Nick Train asks a great question - "what is the right price for quality shares?" That's a deceptively important and potentially difficult problem actually. Its important because of Munger's three laws of investing...
- When Second Best Is Better - The Case For Patient Quality Over Bravery (if You Have A Job)
Having a job is great, but its good to have extra income sources as well. A common one is to buy some rental property, but they have always seemed like a hassle to me. For one thing I do not have the handy man skills and for another my friends who do...
Money and Finance
Paying Up For Quality Stocks
Price is what you pay, value is what you get. - Warren BuffettA few years back, my wife and I were shopping around for a leather couch to put in our new home. As we walked around the showroom of a furniture store and had a look at some of the price tags for the couches, however, I realized our bank account would end up being a little lighter than I expected. Real leather couches don't come cheap.
Never eager to spend large amounts of money, my attention quickly turned to the faux leather options. Much to my delight, these were much cheaper. For a fraction of the price of a real leather couch, we could get the same size and design.
And besides, I reasoned, visitors wouldn't be able to tell the difference anyway. Why spend the extra money?
It seemed like a sweet deal at the time, but things have changed.
Today, my "deep value" couch is falling apart -- literally -- and I find myself back in the market for a new couch. Had I originally paid up for a high-quality leather couch, I probably wouldn't be in my current predicament. The poor man pays twice, indeed.
My mistake was this -- I only considered the price of the faux leather couch relative to the real leather couch without considering the prices relative to their respective quality.
As investors looking to buy stocks on the cheap, we often fall into the same trap -- we erroneously think a company with a lower multiple presents a better deal than one with a high multiple. While that may hold true when we're comparing two identical assets, the rule breaks down when we're comparing assets of different quality.
While the market isn't perfectly efficient, it is generally efficient, so more times than not tomorrow's great companies won't be found using a low price/earnings screen. If you want a chance to own a few of tomorrow's great companies, then, you'll need to eliminate your aversion to paying premium multiples.
As you might deduce from my story about couch shopping, this is something I've struggled with in my own portfolio. On a number of occasions, I've had a case of sticker shock and balked at investing in promising companies only to watch those stocks push higher as their competitive advantages, pricing power, and earnings growth more than justified their premium prices.
The risk with buying premium-multiple stocks is that today's premium-multiple will be tomorrow's average-multiple and your returns will be decimated by a re-rating. Reversion to the mean is a powerful force, of course.
As with any investment, it's critical to get a feel for the market's current expectations for the company and weigh them against your own. Equally important is the ability to tell the difference between a great company from an average company. If you're confident in your evaluation of both factors, you shouldn't shrink from paying up for quality stocks.
Related posts:
- A Closer Look at Peter Lynch's Principles
- Investing is an Expectations Game
- The Difference Between a Good Company and a Great Company
- 16 investing rules to live by -- Morgan Housel
- Having a high tolerance for repetition is a key to portfolio management - A Wealth of Common Sense
- Hedge funds are having a hard time being different - Monevator
- Value and glamour investing - Millennial Invest
- Unbroken - Laura Hillenbrand (If you haven't read this already, I highly recommend it)
- The Warren Buffett Portfolio - Robert Hagstrom
- Does money make you mean? (video) - TED Talks/Paul Piff
Best,
Todd
Follow @ToddWenning
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Future Is Now
Link to: The Future is Now While the evidence may be alarming to some, make no mistake: The median price/revenue multiple for S&P 500 constituents is now significantly higher than at the 2000 market peak. The average price/revenue multiple across...
- Broyhill Asset Management's Thesis On Hospira, Inc.
As equity markets make seemingly daily new highs, it would be easy to accept the current prices of stocks as “truth” but the correct price is impossible to ascertain, given the massive distortion encouraged by relentless and continuous central banks...
- Use The Market's Short-termism To Your Advantage
Here's a general criticism that I often hear about investing in companies with economic moats: Companies with economic moats always look expensive and they trade with premium multiples to the market. How can we invest with a suitable margin-of-safety...
- Dwelling On Quality
In an oped in the FT two years back, Nick Train asks a great question - "what is the right price for quality shares?" That's a deceptively important and potentially difficult problem actually. Its important because of Munger's three laws of investing...
- When Second Best Is Better - The Case For Patient Quality Over Bravery (if You Have A Job)
Having a job is great, but its good to have extra income sources as well. A common one is to buy some rental property, but they have always seemed like a hassle to me. For one thing I do not have the handy man skills and for another my friends who do...