Money and Finance
- Missing The Forest For The Trees...
A few related quotes... From Garrett Hardin in Filters Against Folly (a book Peter Bevelin mentioned as one of the two things he re-reads every year in his 2007 interview): It is unfortunately true that experts are generally better at seeing their...
- Howard Marks Interviewed By Hugo Scott-gall
Via Zero Hedge: Hugo Scott-Gall: How can we understand investor psychology and use it to make investment decisions? Howard Marks: It's the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble, especially since investors’ emotions invariably...
- Excerpt From The Most Important Thing Illuminated - By Howard Marks
Combating Negative Influences By Howard Marks, Author of The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor People who might be perfectly happy with their lot in isolation become miserable when they see others do better....
- Quotes And Hubris
“It's frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what's going on.” –Amos Tversky … “Any central bank can...
- Howard Marks – April 2001 Memo: Safety First . . . But Where?
As is usual from Howard Marks, this 2001 letter was full of wisdom. A few things I found extra interesting are below (Marks’ excerpts are in blue).In the discussion about the prices of certain assets, I thought the third bullet point in the government...
Money and Finance
Knowing What You Don’t Know
From Howard Marks via The Most Important Thing:
We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know— and those who don’t know they don’t know.JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH
It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.AMOS TVERSKY
There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.HENRY KAUFMAN
I’ve chosen three quotes with which to lead off this chapter, and I have a million more where those came from. Awareness of the limited extent of our foreknowledge is an essential component of my approach to investing.
I’m firmly convinced that (a) it’s hard to know what the macro future holds and (b) few people possess superior knowledge of these matters that can regularly be turned into an investing advantage. There are two caveats, however:
• The more we concentrate on smaller-picture things, the more it’s possible to gain a knowledge advantage. With hard work and skill, we can consistently know more than the next person about individual companies and securities, but that’s much less likely with regard to markets and economies. Thus, I suggest people try to “know the knowable.”
• An exception comes in the form of my suggestion, on which I elaborate in the next chapter, that investors should make an effort to figure out where they stand at a moment in time in terms of cycles and pendulums. That won’t render the future twists and turns knowable, but it can help one prepare for likely developments.
- Missing The Forest For The Trees...
A few related quotes... From Garrett Hardin in Filters Against Folly (a book Peter Bevelin mentioned as one of the two things he re-reads every year in his 2007 interview): It is unfortunately true that experts are generally better at seeing their...
- Howard Marks Interviewed By Hugo Scott-gall
Via Zero Hedge: Hugo Scott-Gall: How can we understand investor psychology and use it to make investment decisions? Howard Marks: It's the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble, especially since investors’ emotions invariably...
- Excerpt From The Most Important Thing Illuminated - By Howard Marks
Combating Negative Influences By Howard Marks, Author of The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor People who might be perfectly happy with their lot in isolation become miserable when they see others do better....
- Quotes And Hubris
“It's frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what's going on.” –Amos Tversky … “Any central bank can...
- Howard Marks – April 2001 Memo: Safety First . . . But Where?
As is usual from Howard Marks, this 2001 letter was full of wisdom. A few things I found extra interesting are below (Marks’ excerpts are in blue).In the discussion about the prices of certain assets, I thought the third bullet point in the government...