Money and Finance
A few related quotes...
From Garrett Hardin in Filters Against Folly (a book Peter Bevelin mentioned as one of the two things he re-reads every year in his 2007 interview):
- Garrett Hardin Quote
“The greatest folly is to accept expert statements uncritically. At the very least, we should always seek another opinion. Moreover, to the extent that time allows, we may become a little bit expert ourselves; but we don't have time enough to go...
- Howard Marks Interviewed By Hugo Scott-gall
Via Zero Hedge: Hugo Scott-Gall: How can we understand investor psychology and use it to make investment decisions? Howard Marks: It's the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble, especially since investors’ emotions invariably...
- Experts And Valdez
Below is an interesting excerpt from Garrett Hardin’s book Filters Against Folly. The important things to keep in mind are: 1) this book was published in 1985; and 2) though the cause of the infamous Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989 was related to the...
- Christmas Trees And The Logic Of Growth - By Mark Spitznagel
Central banks are creating a tinderbox by keeping alive many very bad investments. The ubiquitous greenery of the season has me thinking conifers and stock market crashes. There is much to be learned from the coned evergreen trees that form vast forests...
- Santangel’s Review: Richard Chandler, Sino-forest, And How To Turn $10 Million Into $5 Billion
A seemingly minor news item on Thursday gave us the opportunity to write about someone we have wanted to discuss for some time. The story was that Richard Chandler, a New Zealand-based billionaire, had purchased over 10 percent of Sino-Forest Corporation....
Money and Finance
Missing the forest for the trees...
A few related quotes...
From Garrett Hardin in Filters Against Folly (a book Peter Bevelin mentioned as one of the two things he re-reads every year in his 2007 interview):
It is unfortunately true that experts are generally better at seeing their particular kinds of trees than the forest of all life. Thoughtful laymen can become very good at seeing the forest, particularly if they lose their timidity about challenging the experts. When I speak of laymen ("laypersons," if you prefer) I am talking about everyone, because the expert in one field is a layman in all others. In the universal role of laymen we all have to learn to filter the essential meaning out of the too verbose, too aggressively technical statements of the experts. Fortunately this is not as difficult a task as some experts would have us believe.From Nassim Taleb in Antifragile:
I once testified in Congress against a project to fund a crisis forecasting project. The people involved were blind to the paradox that we have never had more data than we have now, yet have less predictability than ever. More data—such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street—can make you miss the big truck. When you cross the street, you remove data, anything but the essential threat.From Chris Begg:
One of the most limiting biases for individuals attempting to make sense of complex systems is that they are a part of the systems. When you are part of the system it becomes increasingly difficult to see the forest for the trees. Each individual tree’s uniqueness and complexity can lead to confusion and ambiguity. The key is to attempt to step outside of the system and see the forest and trees for the essence of what they are.From Howard Marks:
Information and knowledge are two different things. We can have a lot of information without much knowledge, and we can have a lot of knowledge without much wisdom. In fact, sometimes too much data keeps us from seeing the big picture; we can “miss the forest for the trees.”
- Garrett Hardin Quote
“The greatest folly is to accept expert statements uncritically. At the very least, we should always seek another opinion. Moreover, to the extent that time allows, we may become a little bit expert ourselves; but we don't have time enough to go...
- Howard Marks Interviewed By Hugo Scott-gall
Via Zero Hedge: Hugo Scott-Gall: How can we understand investor psychology and use it to make investment decisions? Howard Marks: It's the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble, especially since investors’ emotions invariably...
- Experts And Valdez
Below is an interesting excerpt from Garrett Hardin’s book Filters Against Folly. The important things to keep in mind are: 1) this book was published in 1985; and 2) though the cause of the infamous Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989 was related to the...
- Christmas Trees And The Logic Of Growth - By Mark Spitznagel
Central banks are creating a tinderbox by keeping alive many very bad investments. The ubiquitous greenery of the season has me thinking conifers and stock market crashes. There is much to be learned from the coned evergreen trees that form vast forests...
- Santangel’s Review: Richard Chandler, Sino-forest, And How To Turn $10 Million Into $5 Billion
A seemingly minor news item on Thursday gave us the opportunity to write about someone we have wanted to discuss for some time. The story was that Richard Chandler, a New Zealand-based billionaire, had purchased over 10 percent of Sino-Forest Corporation....