Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Hovering With An Anvil
In July 2011, just before the market lost nearly 20% (but also the last time it corrected materially), I observed “Like Wile E. Coyote holding an anvil just past the edge of a cliff, here we are, looking down below as if there is much question about...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence Abounds
Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported that the 3-week average equity...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Don't Mess With Aunt Minnie
Over the years, I've noted that certain subsets of market conditions - occurring together - are associated with very specific outcomes, such as oncoming recessions, abrupt market weakness, strength in precious metals, and so forth. Such indicator...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Lopsided Risks
In mid-September, our estimates of prospective market return/risk dropped to the lowest figure we’ve observed in a century of market history (see Low Water Mark). That week turned out to be the high of the recent bull market, though it’s certainly too early to establish whether that was the ultimate peak. During the recent correction, I’ve noted a modest improvement in our return/risk estimates – which focus on a blended horizon looking out from 2-weeks to about 18-months. However, last week, the stock market experienced some significant damage to internals (breadth, leadership, price/volume measures, etc). As a result, our estimates of prospective return/risk have plunged lower again, to what is now the second most negative figure we’ve observed in a century of data – the September 14, 2012 weekly close of 1465.77 continues to mark the most negative estimate.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Hovering With An Anvil
In July 2011, just before the market lost nearly 20% (but also the last time it corrected materially), I observed “Like Wile E. Coyote holding an anvil just past the edge of a cliff, here we are, looking down below as if there is much question about...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Confidence Abounds
Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported that the 3-week average equity...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Puppet Show
My concerns here are understandably easy to dismiss given that the S&P 500 is now more than 5% higher than it was in March of last year, when our estimates of prospective return/risk (on a smoothed horizon from 2-weeks to 18 months) first plunged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Don't Mess With Aunt Minnie
Over the years, I've noted that certain subsets of market conditions - occurring together - are associated with very specific outcomes, such as oncoming recessions, abrupt market weakness, strength in precious metals, and so forth. Such indicator...