Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The Rain
Link to: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The RainBased on valuation metrics that have demonstrated a near-90% correlation with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, not only historically but also in recent decades, we estimate that U.S. equities...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Short Horizon, Long Horizon
Over history, and including the past decade, properly normalized valuations have remained a powerful guidepost for full-cycle and long-term returns, particularly on the horizon of 7-10 years. On that front, the current price/revenue multiple of the S&P...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Siren's Song Of The Unfinished Half-cycle
Given the extent and maturity of the recent advance, it’s very odd that analysts are now beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a secular bull market. These notions are based not on the level of valuation, nor on the duration of...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Right Kind Of Hope
Happy New Year. We enter 2012 with a great deal of hope, but our hopes are not for more bailouts, or money printing, or any of the myriad policies that investors seem to hope will save bad investments and sustain elevated valuations. Instead, our hope...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Things I Believe
1) Investors dangerously underestimate the risk of an abrupt and possibly severe equity market plunge 2) Agreement among "experts" is not your friend 3) Downside risk tends to be elevated precisely when risk premiums and volatility indices reflect...
Money and Finance
Hussman Funds Semi-Annual Report
As of February 2012, the S&P 500 is again at a multiple of over 22 times cyclically-adjusted earnings. Regardless of economic prospects, this is a strong headwind. As of February 2012, we estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to achieve an average annual total return of just 4.4% over the coming decade. However, this does not imply that strong investment opportunities will remain scarce for another decade. Projected long-term returns can rise quickly when the stock market declines significantly, which appears likely to occur within a far shorter period than a decade.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The Rain
Link to: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The RainBased on valuation metrics that have demonstrated a near-90% correlation with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, not only historically but also in recent decades, we estimate that U.S. equities...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Short Horizon, Long Horizon
Over history, and including the past decade, properly normalized valuations have remained a powerful guidepost for full-cycle and long-term returns, particularly on the horizon of 7-10 years. On that front, the current price/revenue multiple of the S&P...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Siren's Song Of The Unfinished Half-cycle
Given the extent and maturity of the recent advance, it’s very odd that analysts are now beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a secular bull market. These notions are based not on the level of valuation, nor on the duration of...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Right Kind Of Hope
Happy New Year. We enter 2012 with a great deal of hope, but our hopes are not for more bailouts, or money printing, or any of the myriad policies that investors seem to hope will save bad investments and sustain elevated valuations. Instead, our hope...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Things I Believe
1) Investors dangerously underestimate the risk of an abrupt and possibly severe equity market plunge 2) Agreement among "experts" is not your friend 3) Downside risk tends to be elevated precisely when risk premiums and volatility indices reflect...