Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Vanguard: Forecasting Stock Returns: What Signals Matter, And What Do They Say Now?
Found via The Idea Farm. Executive summary. Some say the long-run outlook for US stocks is poor (even ‘dead’) given the backdrop of muted economic growth, already-high profit margins, elevated government debt levels, and low interest rates. Others...
- From Ice Age To Hyper-inflation With Socgen Bear
(Reuters) - Three months ago, with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its second major stimulus program and inflation pressures on the rise, Albert Edwards' bond market view stood out from the crowd. Societe Generale's famously bearish analyst,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Simple Arithmetic
As I've noted several times in recent months, bond market spreads imply very low near-term (3-6 month) probability of default in any Euro-area country. A sovereign default is much more likely to occur near the end of the next bear market, whenever...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fed-induced Speculative Blowoff
Why are Treasury yields rising despite hundreds of billions of Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve? There are two possibilities in the current debate. One is that the Fed's policy of purchasing Treasuries has scared the willies out of the bond...
Money and Finance
Hoisington Q2 2013 Letter
The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded. This assessment for a continuing pattern of lower yields in the quarters ahead is clearly a minority view, as the recent selling of all types of bond products attest. The rise in long term yields over the last several months was accelerated by the recent Federal Reserve announcement that it would be “tapering” its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This has convinced many bond market participants that the low in long rates is in the past. The Treasury bond market’s short term fluctuations are a function of many factors, but its primary and most fundamental determinate is attitudes toward current and future inflation. From that perspective, the outlook for long term Treasury yields to fall is most favorable in light of: a) diminished inflation pressures; b) slowing GDP growth; c) weakening consumer fundamentals; and d) anti-growth monetary and fiscal policies.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Vanguard: Forecasting Stock Returns: What Signals Matter, And What Do They Say Now?
Found via The Idea Farm. Executive summary. Some say the long-run outlook for US stocks is poor (even ‘dead’) given the backdrop of muted economic growth, already-high profit margins, elevated government debt levels, and low interest rates. Others...
- From Ice Age To Hyper-inflation With Socgen Bear
(Reuters) - Three months ago, with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its second major stimulus program and inflation pressures on the rise, Albert Edwards' bond market view stood out from the crowd. Societe Generale's famously bearish analyst,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Simple Arithmetic
As I've noted several times in recent months, bond market spreads imply very low near-term (3-6 month) probability of default in any Euro-area country. A sovereign default is much more likely to occur near the end of the next bear market, whenever...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fed-induced Speculative Blowoff
Why are Treasury yields rising despite hundreds of billions of Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve? There are two possibilities in the current debate. One is that the Fed's policy of purchasing Treasuries has scared the willies out of the bond...