Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Superstition Ain't The Way
“The problem with QE is that it works in practice but it doesn’t work in theory.” - Ben Bernanke, Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman, January 16, 2014 "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer. Superstition...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide To X-treme Monetary And Fiscal Conditions
Government intervention in the U.S. economy is approaching the point where probable long-term costs exceed short-term benefits – straining to maintain the pace of extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that have repeatedly nudged the U.S. economy...
- Ray Dalio On Monetary Policy During Deleveragings
As quoted by Jack Schwager in his book Hedge Fund Market Wizards: “Unlike in recessions, when cutting interest rates and creating more money can rectify this imbalance, in deleveragings monetary policy is ineffective in creating credit. In other words,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Bernanke Leaps Into A Liquidity Trap
Simply put, monetary policy is far less effective in affecting real (or even nominal) economic activity than investors seem to believe. The main effect of a change in the monetary base is to change monetary velocity and short term interest rates. Once...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fed-Induced Speculative Blowoff
Why are Treasury yields rising despite hundreds of billions of Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve? There are two possibilities in the current debate. One is that the Fed's policy of purchasing Treasuries has scared the willies out of the bond market on fears of higher inflation, and that the policy is a failure. The other is that the policy has been such a success at boosting the prospects for economic growth that interest rates are rising on anticipation of a better economy.
From our standpoint, neither of these explanations hold much water.
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Fortunately for fans of logic, there is a third explanation that is much more plausible, and has the benefit of having data behind it. Despite my extreme criticism of Fed actions in recent years, I would argue that QE2 has in fact been "successful" over the short-term, but not through any monetary mechanism. Rather, QE2 has been successful a) by creating a burst of enthusiasm that released some pent-up demand in the same way that Cash for Clunkers and the new homebuyer tax credit did, and b) by encouraging investors to believe that the Fed has provided a "backstop" for stocks and other risky assets, creating a speculative blowoff in these securities, to the detriment of what investors perceive as "safe" assets, which ironically includes Treasury securities.
...
Fortunately for fans of logic, there is a third explanation that is much more plausible, and has the benefit of having data behind it. Despite my extreme criticism of Fed actions in recent years, I would argue that QE2 has in fact been "successful" over the short-term, but not through any monetary mechanism. Rather, QE2 has been successful a) by creating a burst of enthusiasm that released some pent-up demand in the same way that Cash for Clunkers and the new homebuyer tax credit did, and b) by encouraging investors to believe that the Fed has provided a "backstop" for stocks and other risky assets, creating a speculative blowoff in these securities, to the detriment of what investors perceive as "safe" assets, which ironically includes Treasury securities.
In short, the main effect of QE2 has not been monetary but has instead been rhetorical - and that rhetoric may very well be nearly empty.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Superstition Ain't The Way
“The problem with QE is that it works in practice but it doesn’t work in theory.” - Ben Bernanke, Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman, January 16, 2014 "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer. Superstition...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide To X-treme Monetary And Fiscal Conditions
Government intervention in the U.S. economy is approaching the point where probable long-term costs exceed short-term benefits – straining to maintain the pace of extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that have repeatedly nudged the U.S. economy...
- Ray Dalio On Monetary Policy During Deleveragings
As quoted by Jack Schwager in his book Hedge Fund Market Wizards: “Unlike in recessions, when cutting interest rates and creating more money can rectify this imbalance, in deleveragings monetary policy is ineffective in creating credit. In other words,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Bernanke Leaps Into A Liquidity Trap
Simply put, monetary policy is far less effective in affecting real (or even nominal) economic activity than investors seem to believe. The main effect of a change in the monetary base is to change monetary velocity and short term interest rates. Once...