Money and Finance
Buy a High Yield Portfolio and Hold Forever
In a October 2008 article, Todd Wenning described the High Yield Portfolio approach this way - "
Buy 10 to 15 high-yielding large-cap stocks today and hold them -- forever."
Todd Wenning used a ruleset from Stephen Bland writing at the Motley Fool UK back in 2000 to select a basket of high yielding companies. The ruleset is as follows:
- Large-cap stocks,
- With a history of increasing dividends,
- Relatively low debt levels, and
- Sufficient dividend coverage,
- That hail from diverse industries.
These are to held, basically forever, "the only permissible reasons to sell or remove a stock from the HYP portfolio are (1) the dividend is halted or cut, or (2) the company is acquired."
In the research article, Todd Wenning highlighted seven stocks:
| Original dividend yield |
Nucor | 3.5% |
Sysco | 3.4% |
Eli Lilly | 5.5% |
Caterpillar | 4.1% |
UPS | 3.5% |
Northrop Grumman | 3.4% |
Reynolds American | 7.3% |
The blended portfolio came in around 4.5% yield at time of purchase, so an investor who put in $1,500 in each company could realize over $450 in annual income.
Fast forward to today, we are in a global yield famine. Its actually somewhat painful to look at the yields available circa 2008, but moving along how would an investor have done buying this HYP? I ran some numbers over on Longrundata.com.
| Value of $1,500 is now worth | Annualized Total Return |
Nucor | $2,662.28 | 10.5% |
Sysco | 2,917.15 | 12.2 |
Eli Lilly | 3,958.58 | 18.3 |
Caterpillar | 5,466.24 | 25.2 |
UPS | 3,939.37 | 18.2 |
Northrop Grumman | 5,885.32 | 26.8 |
Reynolds American | 5,202.26 | 24.1 |
The net result here is that from the time that Todd Wenning wrote this article on HYP to now, the value of those seven stocks with $1,500 in original (For a total of 10,500) plus dividends reinvested is worth $30,031.20 today. The average annualized return is 17.8%.
Those are stellar results, but that's not the best part. The High Yield Portfolio concept is about Yield. Otherwise why hold forever? Turning to the current yield in those companies
| Value of $1,500 is now worth | Current Yield | Current Income |
Nucor | $2,662.28 | 2.9% | $77.21 |
Sysco | 2,917.15 | 3.1 | 90.43 |
Eli Lilly | 3,958.58 | 3.2 | 126.67 |
Caterpillar | 5,466.24 | 2.6 | 142.12 |
UPS | 3,939.37 | 2.6 | 102.42 |
Northrop Grumman | 5,885.32 | 2.3 | 135.36 |
Reynolds American | 5,202.26 | 4.3 | 223.70 |
So with an initial investment in the fictional HYP in October 2008 of $10,500, this group of companies not only delivered capital gains; it now yields $897.92. This equates to a 8.6% yield on original cost, closing in on a holy grail of income investors - a double digit yield on cost. This where a very good return goes to great.
Notice that there was no massive risk taking here, no ground breaking discoveries, no impossible to predict outcomes. Its as dowdy a group of companies as you are likely to find.. The idea of a HYP is sound in principle, and examples like Todd Wenning's show how well it can work in practice.
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