Money and Finance
- Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, And The Kelly Criterion
Excerpt from Jack Schwager’s interview with Ed Thorp in the book Hedge Fund Market Wizards: The Kelly criterion is the fraction of capital to wager to maximize compounded growth of capital. Even when there is an edge, beyond some threshold, larger bets...
- Gundy Learns To Trust His Instincts
Found via @tferriss. "There's so much growing that goes on that can only happen during experience," Gundy said. "... [There's] the evolution but also the mistakes, making mistakes, and sitting in my office and thinking, 'OK, how can I eliminate...
- All The Right Moves (one Of The World’s Great Chess Teachers, On How To Think Like A Champion)
I found this article on Simoleon Sense. There are some great lessons from chess that can also apply to investing. When I do talk with students, my goal is to help them develop what I consider to be two of the most important forms of intelligence: the...
- How David Beats Goliath - By Malcolm Gladwell
When Vivek Ranadivé decided to coach his daughter Anjali’s basketball team, he settled on two principles. The first was that he would never raise his voice. This was National Junior Basketball—the Little League of basketball. The team was made up...
- Bill Miller: What's Luck Got To Do With It?
This interview is from July of this year and since I don't believe I posted it before now, here it is.-Bill Miller on poker and investing - Question: Right. Who's Puggy Pearson, and why should anybody care? - Answer: Well, the late Puggy Pearson...
Money and Finance
Meet the world's top NBA gambler
A big thanks to Sean for passing this along.
Bob Voulgaris had become one of the most successful sports gamblers in the world when, in 2004, he started to lose. It wasn’t just a streak of bad luck, a series of randomly unfavorable outcomes that could last only so long. His edge, he realized, was gone.
He had begun betting on sports in the late 1990s, and within five years, before he had reached his 30th birthday, Voulgaris had accumulated a fortune. He says he routinely wagered a million dollars in a single day of NBA games. He considered his mean to be an unholy winning percentage that approached 70 percent. A man of no fixed address, he dated models and traveled the world. He was also an accomplished poker player, buying his way into high-stakes games from Las Vegas to Macau. He was essentially leading the fantasy life of your basic under-35 North American male.
A specialist in the NBA, his sports gambling success was almost completely the result of a kind of studied perspicacity, born of a talent for pattern recognition and the stamina to watch uncountable hours of televised basketball. In betting parlance, the man could suss out an edge -- and in 2002, he discovered one that would line his pockets for years. It all had to do with how most bookmakers set their halftime totals, the predicted number of points scored in each half of the game. Each half, of course, is its own discrete period of play, and the fourth quarters of close games can end in elongated foul-clogged stretches of free throws, timeouts, fast play and, hence, a burst of scoring. But incredibly, bookmakers at the time didn’t account for this fact; they simply arrived at a total for the full game and cut that figure roughly down the middle, assigning some 50 percent of the points to the first half and 50 percent to the second.
For years, Voulgaris exploited this edge, playing both sides of it repeatedly. It is possible to say that it alone made him millions, combined with some keen observations regarding the game-management tendencies of three head coaches: Eddie Jordan, Jerry Sloan and Byron Scott. “Those were three coaches I had nailed perfectly,” Voulgaris, now 37, says. “I knew exactly what they were going to do. I mean, it was a joke, it was so easy.”
In retrospect, he regrets only not having bet more aggressively during this halcyon period. “I thought it would last forever,” he tells me when I visit him at the house he was then renting in the Hollywood Hills for $12,500 a month. “But it didn’t.” Eventually, the bookmakers did finally catch on. Responding specifically to the money they saw Voulgaris minting -- though, for the most part, they didn’t yet know the identity of the gambler winning with such consistency -- they forever altered the method by which they set their NBA halftime totals.
And that’s when Voulgaris started to lose. And lose big. He lost a third of his bankroll in the final month of the 2003-04 season alone. Exasperated, his patience gone, he started to “tilt,” boosting the volume of his wagers in an effort to win back what he’d already lost. He won’t quantify exactly how much he gave back to the bookmakers all told except to describe it as a catastrophic time. He took the second part of the 2004-05 NBA season off. Mulling things over, he realized he needed a new approach. In essence, he decided he could no longer rely on his ability to suss out edges by his wits alone. He needed the help of a new machine.
…………….
Related link: Billy Walters on 60 Minutes
- Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, And The Kelly Criterion
Excerpt from Jack Schwager’s interview with Ed Thorp in the book Hedge Fund Market Wizards: The Kelly criterion is the fraction of capital to wager to maximize compounded growth of capital. Even when there is an edge, beyond some threshold, larger bets...
- Gundy Learns To Trust His Instincts
Found via @tferriss. "There's so much growing that goes on that can only happen during experience," Gundy said. "... [There's] the evolution but also the mistakes, making mistakes, and sitting in my office and thinking, 'OK, how can I eliminate...
- All The Right Moves (one Of The World’s Great Chess Teachers, On How To Think Like A Champion)
I found this article on Simoleon Sense. There are some great lessons from chess that can also apply to investing. When I do talk with students, my goal is to help them develop what I consider to be two of the most important forms of intelligence: the...
- How David Beats Goliath - By Malcolm Gladwell
When Vivek Ranadivé decided to coach his daughter Anjali’s basketball team, he settled on two principles. The first was that he would never raise his voice. This was National Junior Basketball—the Little League of basketball. The team was made up...
- Bill Miller: What's Luck Got To Do With It?
This interview is from July of this year and since I don't believe I posted it before now, here it is.-Bill Miller on poker and investing - Question: Right. Who's Puggy Pearson, and why should anybody care? - Answer: Well, the late Puggy Pearson...