Money and Finance
- James Montier: Equity Markets Are Overvalued
Link to: Interview with James MontierJames, are you able to find anything in today’s financial markets that still has an attractive valuation?Nothing at all. When we look at the world today, what we see is a hideous opportunity set. And that’s a reflection...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Did Monetary Policy Cause The Recovery?
As investors, we should be aware that the current Shiller P/E of 24.8 (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation adjusted earnings) is now above every historical instance prior to the bubble period since the late-1990's, save for the...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Rock, Paper, Scissors
It will come as no surprise that market conditions remain of great concern here. As always, but particularly now, it’s important to stress that our defensiveness is a reflection of prevailing, observable evidence and the alignment of our investment...
- Gmo: Jeremy Grantham's 1q 2009 Letter
The Loss of “Near Certainties” in Investing First, let me lament the loss of near certainties in investing. The financial and economic collapse that I described as “the most widely predicted surprise in the history of finance” about 18 months...
- Bubbles, Jobs And Investment Tips: Jeremy Grantham Visits Wharton
"Career risk and bubbles breaking, that is all that matters."-This was how Jeremy Grantham, cofounder, Chairman and active member of the asset allocation division of GMO, began his presentation to Wharton students on February 17, 2009....So how does Mr....
Money and Finance
When Does A Bubble Spell Trouble? - By Jason Zweig
The minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, released this past week, show that central bankers have been worrying that the financial markets might turn into a bubble — the term for a perilously overvalued situation that can burst without warning or mercy.
Those who want to understand whether markets are in a bubble today should study the first bubble from almost three centuries ago.
The clearest lesson from history: Worries about a bubble matter less than how the investing public reacts to those worries. By that standard, while today’s stock market is no bargain, it doesn’t resemble the classic overhyped and hyperreactive markets that experts generally agree were bubbles, such as 1999-2000, 1929 and 1720.
This takeaway comes from the most visually stunning and, in my opinion, one of the most important investing books of the past year: “The Great Mirror of Folly: Finance, Culture, and the Crash of 1720,” published in November by Yale University Press. The volume commemorates a collection of prints, poems, plays and prospectuses first published in Amsterdam 294 years ago.
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Related book: The Great Mirror of Folly: Finance, Culture, and the Crash of 1720 (Yale Series in Economic and Financial History)
- James Montier: Equity Markets Are Overvalued
Link to: Interview with James MontierJames, are you able to find anything in today’s financial markets that still has an attractive valuation?Nothing at all. When we look at the world today, what we see is a hideous opportunity set. And that’s a reflection...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Did Monetary Policy Cause The Recovery?
As investors, we should be aware that the current Shiller P/E of 24.8 (S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation adjusted earnings) is now above every historical instance prior to the bubble period since the late-1990's, save for the...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Rock, Paper, Scissors
It will come as no surprise that market conditions remain of great concern here. As always, but particularly now, it’s important to stress that our defensiveness is a reflection of prevailing, observable evidence and the alignment of our investment...
- Gmo: Jeremy Grantham's 1q 2009 Letter
The Loss of “Near Certainties” in Investing First, let me lament the loss of near certainties in investing. The financial and economic collapse that I described as “the most widely predicted surprise in the history of finance” about 18 months...
- Bubbles, Jobs And Investment Tips: Jeremy Grantham Visits Wharton
"Career risk and bubbles breaking, that is all that matters."-This was how Jeremy Grantham, cofounder, Chairman and active member of the asset allocation division of GMO, began his presentation to Wharton students on February 17, 2009....So how does Mr....