Money and Finance
The business of the stock market is to cash in on the future now. Accordingly it is really not as important, short term, to know what sales and earnings are going to be five and ten years hence as to know what other investors are going to think they will be. In general the longer a trend continues the more people can be found willing to risk their savings on the proposition that it will continue longer still. As a practical matter then we probably should assume that old trends will persist longer than new trends simply because, whether they do or not, more investors will be inclined to assume that they will.”
-Thomas William Phelps, 100 to 1 in the stock market
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Low And Expanding Risk Premiums Are The Root Of Abrupt Market Losses
Link to: Low and Expanding Risk Premiums are the Root of Abrupt Market Losses Through the recurrent bubbles and collapses of recent decades, I’ve often discussed what I call the Iron Law of Finance: Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim...
- Nightmare On Wall Street: This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun - By Ed Easterling
Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered bountiful returns. ...
- Phelps And Jobs On The Customer
“The point to keep in mind is that how much it costs to produce anything means little or nothing unless you know what people will pay for it now and in the future. In business, it is bad luck to tell people what they should want instead of trying to...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Reckless Myopia
I should have assumed that Wall Street's tendency toward reckless myopia – ingrained over the past decade – would return at the first sign of even temporary stability. The eagerness of investors to chase prevailing trends, and their unwillingness...
- Moats Matter For Dividend Investors
"Why Moats Matter for Equity Income" Josh Peters, Morningstar "The first thing you have to remember about dividend investing is that dividends are paid out slowly, though, relentlessly, and they really add up over time. But if you're going to actually...
Money and Finance
Thomas W. Phelps on trends
“Since for all men the visibility of the future is zero beyond this instant, assumptions as to how long observed trends will continue must be based on probabilities which in turn have been derived from the past and hence may not apply to the future. This is a long-winded way of saying that all estimates of the future are to some degree subjective.
The business of the stock market is to cash in on the future now. Accordingly it is really not as important, short term, to know what sales and earnings are going to be five and ten years hence as to know what other investors are going to think they will be. In general the longer a trend continues the more people can be found willing to risk their savings on the proposition that it will continue longer still. As a practical matter then we probably should assume that old trends will persist longer than new trends simply because, whether they do or not, more investors will be inclined to assume that they will.”
-Thomas William Phelps, 100 to 1 in the stock market
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Low And Expanding Risk Premiums Are The Root Of Abrupt Market Losses
Link to: Low and Expanding Risk Premiums are the Root of Abrupt Market Losses Through the recurrent bubbles and collapses of recent decades, I’ve often discussed what I call the Iron Law of Finance: Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim...
- Nightmare On Wall Street: This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun - By Ed Easterling
Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered bountiful returns. ...
- Phelps And Jobs On The Customer
“The point to keep in mind is that how much it costs to produce anything means little or nothing unless you know what people will pay for it now and in the future. In business, it is bad luck to tell people what they should want instead of trying to...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Reckless Myopia
I should have assumed that Wall Street's tendency toward reckless myopia – ingrained over the past decade – would return at the first sign of even temporary stability. The eagerness of investors to chase prevailing trends, and their unwillingness...
- Moats Matter For Dividend Investors
"Why Moats Matter for Equity Income" Josh Peters, Morningstar "The first thing you have to remember about dividend investing is that dividends are paid out slowly, though, relentlessly, and they really add up over time. But if you're going to actually...