Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: When Rich Valuations Meet Poor Economic Data
The advance estimate for first quarter GDP came in decidedly below expectations at a 2.5% annual rate, but even that rate belies the fact that real final sales slowed to just 1.5% growth, from 1.8% last quarter. The remaining 1% of the first-quarter growth...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Taking Distortion At Face Value
March U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls +88,000 (payroll survey, median expectation was 175,000)March U.S. Civilian Employment -206,000 (household survey)March Canadian Employment -54,500 (worst print in 4 years)March German Unemployment +13,000 (surprise increase)Companies...
- The End Of The Growth Consensus - By John Taylor
This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession. But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.8% per year compared with 7.1% after the most recent...
- Hoisington Q4 Letter
Factoring in a 4% Q4 growth rate, the U.S. economy expanded by 3% in real terms from the 4th quarter of 2009 through the 4th quarter of 2010. Despite this rise in GDP, the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at 9.6% in the last quarter of 2010,...
- Der Spiegel Interview With Paul Volcker
Volcker: The recovery is quite slow and I expect it to continue to be pretty slow and restrained for a variety of reasons and the possibility of a relapse can't be entirely discounted. I'm not predicting it but I think we have to be careful.SPIEGEL:...
Money and Finance
The Boeckh Investment Letter: Increasing Risks
The artificial nature of the U.S. economic recovery from the recession lows has always been obvious. In recent months, judging from media coverage, it is now mainstream. While there are a few lingering signs that support some modest optimism, it is getting difficult to find much to cheer about. In our letter Vol. 2.10, The Artificial Economic Recovery, dated July 23, 2010 we pointed out that the U.S. growth trajectory was converging on 1% p.a. With revisions to second quarter GDP that seems to be fact now. A double-dip U.S. recession is still not a done deal but forces are all on the side of economic weakness and deflation, and a double-dip recession next year carries a significant possibility.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: When Rich Valuations Meet Poor Economic Data
The advance estimate for first quarter GDP came in decidedly below expectations at a 2.5% annual rate, but even that rate belies the fact that real final sales slowed to just 1.5% growth, from 1.8% last quarter. The remaining 1% of the first-quarter growth...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Taking Distortion At Face Value
March U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls +88,000 (payroll survey, median expectation was 175,000)March U.S. Civilian Employment -206,000 (household survey)March Canadian Employment -54,500 (worst print in 4 years)March German Unemployment +13,000 (surprise increase)Companies...
- The End Of The Growth Consensus - By John Taylor
This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession. But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.8% per year compared with 7.1% after the most recent...
- Hoisington Q4 Letter
Factoring in a 4% Q4 growth rate, the U.S. economy expanded by 3% in real terms from the 4th quarter of 2009 through the 4th quarter of 2010. Despite this rise in GDP, the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at 9.6% in the last quarter of 2010,...
- Der Spiegel Interview With Paul Volcker
Volcker: The recovery is quite slow and I expect it to continue to be pretty slow and restrained for a variety of reasons and the possibility of a relapse can't be entirely discounted. I'm not predicting it but I think we have to be careful.SPIEGEL:...