Money and Finance
The Absolute Return Letter, February 2014: Challenging the Consensus
Link to: The Absolute Return Letter, February 2014: Challenging the Consensus
Investors are overwhelmingly bearish on bonds going into 2014. In this month’s Absolute Return Letter we challenge that view and look at various reasons why the bond market may surprise most people and deliver a positive return this year. In no particular order, those reasons are:
- The emerging market crisis escalates further;
- The Eurozone crisis re-ignites;
- The disinflationary trend intensifies and potentially turns into deflation;
- The economic recovery currently underway proves unsustainable; and/or
- Flow of funds provides more support for bonds than anticipated.
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Howard Marks Quotes
From The Most Important Thing (and his April 2007 letter, "Everyone Knows"): ...most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something’s risky. But high quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe....
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Links
Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day Transcript (May 2015) [H/T market folly] (LINK) Pershing Square Holdings' interim report [H/T Will] (LINK) Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' (video) (LINK) Are You...
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The Absolute Return Letter - May 2012
Investors often behave as if they operate in a world of logic and certainty even when that is not the case. For that reason, history is littered with investors who have failed miserably. In this month's Absolute Return Letter we look at many of the...
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The Absolute Return Letter - December 2011: The Facts They Don’t Want You To Know
This month's letter is not a typical Absolute Return Letter but it is something that I feel strongly about and wanted to write about for a long time. I hope you will enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. The message is simple: Our industry...
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Vaccinate Yourself Against 2014 Predictions With Silver Medals
Its prediction season! What will the market do? What will happen in economics? In the world? No one really knows but there sure are lots of people ready, willing, and able to give authoritative sounding predictions on what will happen in 2014. I follow...
Money and Finance