Money and Finance
Target Stock Analysis
I've been wanting to pick up some shares of Target (TGT) for a while but the price has always been just out of reach for me. It's getting close to where I'd feel comfortable initiating a position so I figured I'd post my stock analysis on the company. During trading on Tuesday, November 27th shares were trading for $62.95.
Company Background:Target Corporation operates general merchandise stores in the United States. The company offers household essentials, including pharmacy, beauty, personal care, baby care, cleaning, and paper products; hardlines comprising music, movies, books, computer software, sporting goods, and toys, as well as electronics that comprise video game hardware and software; apparel and accessories consisting of apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns; and intimate apparel, jewelry, accessories, and shoes. It also provides food and pet supplies, including dry grocery, dairy, frozen food, beverages, candy, snacks, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and pet supplies; and home furnishings and décor, such as furniture, lighting, kitchenware, small appliances, home décor, bed and bath, home improvement, and automotive products, as well as seasonal merchandise, which include patio furniture and holiday décor. The company sells its merchandise products under private-label and exclusive licensed brands. In addition, it provides in-store amenities. As of November 15, 2012, the company operated 1,782 stores in the United States. Further, it offers general merchandise through its Website, Target.com. The company distributes its merchandise through a network of distribution centers, as well as third parties and direct shipping from vendors. Additionally, it offers credit to guests through its branded proprietary credit cards, the Target Visa Credit Card and the Target Credit Card, as well as through its branded proprietary Target Debit Card.
DCF Valuation:Analysts expect Target to grow earnings 11.77% per year for the next five years and I've assumed they can continue to grow at 3.50% per year thereafter, slightly above the long term inflation rate. Running these numbers through a DCF analysis with a 10% discount rate yields a fair value price of $93.92. This means that at $67.95 the shares are undervalued by 33.0%.
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