Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Berkshire Avoids Rout As Buffett Sidesteps Bonds
Warren Buffett’s preference for buying stocks and whole companies rather than bonds is helping Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) weather a spike in interest rates better than other insurers. Book value rose 2 percent to about $122,900 per Class A share...
- Bill Gross – January 2013 Investment Outlook: Money For Nothin’ Writing Checks For Free
It was Milton Friedman, not Ben Bernanke, who first made reference to dropping money from helicopters in order to prevent deflation. Bernanke’s now famous “helicopter speech” in 2002, however, was no less enthusiastically supportive of the concept....
- Goodhaven Semi-annual Report
The Fund’s capital is being deployed judiciously and we still have a chunk of cash – we are optimistic, but cautious. Although our cash position will decrease as we find new and appropriate investments, the world is still a troubled place and we are...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Bernanke Leaps Into A Liquidity Trap
Simply put, monetary policy is far less effective in affecting real (or even nominal) economic activity than investors seem to believe. The main effect of a change in the monetary base is to change monetary velocity and short term interest rates. Once...
Money and Finance
Steve Romick's Q2 Commentary
Found via ValueWalk.
Our views on the economy are not terribly original and have not changed significantly in the past six months. It’s a challenge finding new ways to say the same thing. So we won’t. We think our past commentaries effectively communicate our longstanding view that as we exited the 2008-9 financial crisis, the average Joe on the street was left with less in his bank account, a diminished home value, and what stocks he did own weren’t worth as much. When Joe could afford less, the U.S. government stepped in and spent in his place, and hasn’t stopped spending since. What the Joes of the world can’t afford, the U.S. government apparently can – but don’t ask us to explain that “new” math. The recovery has been disappointing and largely ngineered by central bank policy. We worry that low interest rates and novel and theoretical Fed policy could lead to unintended consequences.
The past quarter included a brief hiccup when investors considered their exposure to low interest rates in the event the Fed allows rates to normalize. There was a lot of discussion in the media during the past quarter regarding how and when Ben Bernanke intends to taper the purchase of bonds by the Federal Reserve. Interestingly, we can’t recall having a single conversation internally about the taper, as this simply isn’t how we look at the world. We are worried about how a business and the world might look three to five years from now, not next quarter. In fact, if one thinks back five years, the world has dealt with a great financial crisis, potential currency collapse and fears of sovereign liquidity, just to name some of what we have seen. Through it all, we invested with a long-term strategy dependent on patience, discipline and a focus on long-term value. With an average holding period of roughly five years, we strive to add value over a full business cycle rather than try to guess where central bankers may move interest rates.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Outlook Will Shift As Conditions Shift
Our investment outlook will shift as market conditions shift, and we will lean toward a more constructive stance when conditions support it. There are straightforward ways to do that while still remaining careful about larger cyclical risks. Present conditions...
- Berkshire Avoids Rout As Buffett Sidesteps Bonds
Warren Buffett’s preference for buying stocks and whole companies rather than bonds is helping Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) weather a spike in interest rates better than other insurers. Book value rose 2 percent to about $122,900 per Class A share...
- Bill Gross – January 2013 Investment Outlook: Money For Nothin’ Writing Checks For Free
It was Milton Friedman, not Ben Bernanke, who first made reference to dropping money from helicopters in order to prevent deflation. Bernanke’s now famous “helicopter speech” in 2002, however, was no less enthusiastically supportive of the concept....
- Goodhaven Semi-annual Report
The Fund’s capital is being deployed judiciously and we still have a chunk of cash – we are optimistic, but cautious. Although our cash position will decrease as we find new and appropriate investments, the world is still a troubled place and we are...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Bernanke Leaps Into A Liquidity Trap
Simply put, monetary policy is far less effective in affecting real (or even nominal) economic activity than investors seem to believe. The main effect of a change in the monetary base is to change monetary velocity and short term interest rates. Once...