Return of the old ways of thinking threatens recovery - By Mohamed El-Erian
Today’s lack of appropriate anchoring frameworks appears to be exacerbating short-termism. The issue goes well beyond the still-limited appreciation of the multi-year realignment of the global economy, which is gaining momentum. It also relates to tendencies well-documented by behavioural economists – such as framing the problem wrongly and refusing to question past approaches.
Given all this, we would be all well advised to follow the admonition of Mervyn King. Last month, the governor of the Bank of England stated bluntly: “It’s the level, stupid – it’s not the growth rates, it’s the levels that matter here.” Investors have not yet accepted his insight that the absolute levels of income, debt, wealth and unemployment, not just the rates of change, are what matters today. They need to, and soon.
- Socgen’s Edwards: Mervyn King Should Be Stripped Of Knighthood
Société Générale global strategist Albert Edwards has said Bank of England governor Mervyn King and former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan should be stripped of their knighthoods in light of the same fate befalling Fred Goodwin. Former RBS...
- The End Of The Growth Consensus - By John Taylor
This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession. But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.8% per year compared with 7.1% after the most recent...
- Fpa Capital Fund Letter To Shareholders
Thanks to Steve F. for passing this along. The stock market has a much rosier outlook than we do at this time, and is discounting a significant recovery in earnings. We think such a recovery is unlikely with banks pulling back on their lending, the consumer...
- Bill Miller - Legg Mason Value Trust - Q2 Letter
A group of us were standing around a few weeks ago when Warren Buffett wandered over. Chris Davis had dubbed us the Value Support Group, as we all adhered to that approach to investing. We were commiserating over how badly we had done in this market,...
- What To Make Of Qe3
I'm very annoyed that Bernanke announced QE3 today. The plan is to purchase $40 Billion of mortgage-backed securities each month until they are satisfied that the economy, specifically unemployment, is righted. He also announced today that interest...