Probabilistic Thinking and the 80/20 Rule
Money and Finance

Probabilistic Thinking and the 80/20 Rule


The human brain is inherently bad at dealing with probabilities. This is largely evident in the field of investing where investors try to handicap companies as potential investments, especially in the face of uncertainty. Investors should strive to improve their cognition of probabilities and operate with a frame of mind that helps to compensate for our wiring at birth. As well, investors need to avoid information overload, a few key variables is all one needs to handicap the odds of an investment’s success or failure.




- Howard Marks Quote
From Marks' memo "Liquidity": When you find an investment with the potential to compound over a long period of time, one of the hardest things is to be patient and maintain your position as long as doing so is warranted on the basis of the prospective...

- Seth Klarman Quote
From Margin of Safety(Source):Some investors insist on trying to obtain perfect knowledge about their impending investments, researching companies until they think they know everything there is to know about them. They study the industry and the competition,...

- Warren Buffett Quote On Filters
As I've previously mentioned (HERE) how important I think filters are in deliberate practice and achieving expertise in investing, this quote from Warren Buffett during yesterday's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting really struck a chord with me:"Charlie...

- Nassim Taleb On Probabilistic Thinking
“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos,...

- Whitney Tilson: Investors Will Miss Out If They Confuse Uncertainty With Risk
Dealing with uncertainty is always a key challenge for investors. But dealing with uncertainty doesn’t mean avoiding it – on the contrary, it is often fuzziness about a company’s future that creates the type of opportunity bargain-hunting investors...



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