PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Deleveraging, Austerity and Europe’s Potential Minsky Moment
Money and Finance

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Deleveraging, Austerity and Europe’s Potential Minsky Moment


​As things stand today, it is more likely that the ECB will leap to a rescue only when it is too late. Absent any increase in private or external sources of aggregate demand, the eurozone economy will likely experience a recession in 2012.

Chinese deleveraging and rebalancing could mean much slower Chinese growth and a smaller impact of Chinese aggregate demand on the global economy.

We expect the global economy to grow by 1% to 1.5% in 2012. This is significantly slower than the 2.5% growth rate achieved in 2011 and the 4.1% rate achieved in 2010.




- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Leap Of Faith
Economists know that there are three ways to deleverage an economy: austerity – where debt growth is held below the rate of economic growth; restructuring – where bad debts are written down or renegotiated; and monetization – where money is printed...

- Prem Watsa's 2011 Shareholder Letter - Fairfax Financial
We continue to fully hedge our common stock portfolios as our concerns about the United States discussed in our 2010 Annual Report persist, and have been magnified by the financial crisis in Europe, including the underlying austerity programs, and the...

- John Mauldin's Outside The Box: Working Out Of Debt
This week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” about debt and deleveraging, from the McKinsey Global Institute. This is a well-done summary of their longer paper, which has been updated, called “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress...

- Chinese Slowdown Boosts Hendry’s Fund
A hedge fund designed to profit from a slowdown in the Chinese economy, run by the London hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, has soared in value over the past two months as global markets have plummeted and industry peers have suffered damaging losses. Mr...

- Protecting Your Income
The global economy still isn't back on its own feet as central banks are continuing to prop up the economy by printing more money.  It seems like for the past few years all you've heard on the financial news is how the economy could slip into...



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