Peter Cundill on statistical overvaluation
Money and Finance

Peter Cundill on statistical overvaluation


From There's Always Something to Do:
I almost stopped selling Japan short in the last quarter of 1989 because I couldn’t stand it anymore. But intellectually I was convinced that I was right and so I carried on and then in the first quarter of 1990 the Japanese market fell by 25% in eight weeks and I made back everything I’d given away since 1987 plus a good deal more. But I tell you statistical overvaluation is a funny thing – it can go on for a very long time, far beyond the limits of rationality, and it is a problem for the value investor in two ways: it can tempt one to compromise standards on the buy side and it may lure one into selling things far too early. I have less of a problem with the selling temptation because I have always loved cash – if you’ve got lots of it you will never have to pass up a great opportunity.





- Hedging And The 1988-1990 Japanese Stock Market
Interesting lesson/piece of history, from Seth Klarman’s book Margin of Safety: “In the best of all worlds, an investment that has valuable hedging properties may also be an attractive investment on its own merits. By way of example, from mid-1988...

- Review Of “the Art Of Short Selling” By Kathryn Staley
Found via Market Folly. The review includes a good short selling checklist. There is another good checklist HERE. Link to: “The Art of Short Selling” review ……………….. Book: The Art of Short Selling Related previous post: The Art of Short...

- Bruce Greenwald On Value Investing
What's the current environment like for a value guy?- I'll tell you the one really nice reason to be a value investor: When things like this happen, you cannot help but go nuts at the opportunity. What this looks like is the end of 1974, where...

- Longleaf Partners Funds 4th Quarter Letter
The fourth quarter volatility gave long-term investors terrific opportunities to pursue. Short-term, prices suffered, particularly in the two domestic funds. While negative performance is frustrating, falling prices are not necessarily worrisome. As patient,...

- Portfolio Management: Considering Closing A Position
In a post last week I discussed our forecast tax situation for 2015.  It's a weird place to be in as I don't expect us to normally be in the 15% tax bracket but there's a big benefit to that: qualified dividends and long term capital gains...



Money and Finance








.