Notes from Tim Harford's book "Adapt"
Via Farnam Street:
Biologists have a word for the way in which solutions emerge from failure: evolution. ... Disconcertingly, given our instinctive belief that complex problems require expertly designed solutions, it is completely unplanned. Astounding complexity emerges in response to a simple process: try out a few variants on what you already have, weed out the failures, copy the success - and repeat forever. Variation, and selection, again and again.
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Whether we like it or not, trial and error is a tremendously powerful process for solving problems in a complex world, while expert leadership is not.
...most real-world problems are more complex than we think. They have a human dimension, a local dimension, and are likely to change as circumstances change. ... (the method for dealing with this could be summarized in three principles) first, seek out new ideas and try new things; second, when trying something new, do it on a scale where failure is survivable; third, seek out feedback and learn from your mistakes as you go along. (variation, survivability, and selection)
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Book: Adapt
Related previous posts:
Tim Harford on learning from failure
In praise of pragmatism - By Tim Harford
Tim Harford on EconTalk
- Links
TED Talk - Tim Harford: How messy problems can inspire creativity (video) (LINK) The $500 Million Battle Over Disney’s Princesses: How Hasbro grabbed the lucrative Disney doll business from Mattel (LINK) [H/T @ChrisPavese] (LINK) Greg Ip on EconTalk...
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Tens of millions of Americans don’t have access to basic care for prevention and treatment of illness. For decades, there’s been wide support for universal health care. Finally, with the passage of Obamacare, two years ago, we did something about...
- Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability - By Joseph Tainter
Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-solving institutions. The factors that lead to long-term success or failure in problem solving have received little attention, so that this fundamental activity is poorly understood....
- Tim Harford On Learning From Failure
Link to video: Trial, error, success ……………….. Book: Adapt Related previous posts: In praise of pragmatism - By Tim Harford Tim Harford on EconTalk ...
- Tim Harford On Econtalk
Tim Harford, author and journalist, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Adapt, Harford's book on the virtues of failure and the trial and error process. Harford argues that success is more likely when there is experimentation and trial and...