Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions
Money and Finance

Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions


Found via Abnormal Returns.

IU: How do you invest your own money?

Silver: I’m actually a rather dull and conservative investor for the most part—I mostly just invest in index funds or mutual funds with low fees. One thing I know about the market is that it’s a case where a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing and funds do very well when you’re basically piggybacking all the decisions that every other investor is making. For the most part, I’m playing it quite safe; but frankly, I’m looking for things to invest in right now. I think the markets are more likely to be a little hot right now, a little overvalued rather than undervalued in terms of U.S. equities. 

One piece of advice that I get from some people is that if you’re going to invest for fun, take 10 percent of your investments at most to play around with. I’ll invest in a few individual companies in a kind of contrarian way. If I hear friends of mine who work at banks trashing a company and I think it’s for the wrong reasons, then I might be a little more likely to put a little money in it. But 90 percent of my money is in very dull and safe “index fund”-types of vehicles. 




- If Investors Could Know Only One Thing About Greed And Fear...
From Seth Klarman: Fear of missing out, of course, is not fear at all but unbridled greed. The key is to hold your emotions in check with reason, something few are able to do. The markets are often a tease, falsely reinforcing one’s confidence as prices...

- Buffett Seizes Lead In Bet Against Protege (video)
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett made a friendly bet four years ago that funds that invest in hedge funds for their clients couldn’t beat the stock market over a decade. So far he’s winning. The wager that began on Jan. 1, 2008, pits Buffett...

- Some Investing Advice For My Son
My wife and I recently welcomed our son into the world and, like any new parent, I've been thinking about all the things I'll need to teach him as he grows up -- how to ride a bike, how to read, and, of course, how to invest. So with a few minutes...

- Be Prepared To Lose All Your Money In The Stock Market.
(You can read my post here if you haven't already @ Standard Chartered is closing its' equity business. What a way to start 2015!) Continuing from the events of yesterday, a sudden thought occurred to me. While I was wondering what would...

- Index Investing In The Singapore Stock Market, What Do I Buy?
Passive Investment Strategy to Index Investing When it comes to investing, most people are searching the web or mindlessly reading through blogpost after blogpost on a hundred different blogs in an attempt to search for the 1 Valuable Thing. The Best...



Money and Finance








.