Money and Finance
- On The Difference Between Binary Prediction And True Exposure, With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments And Prediction Markets – By Nassim Nicholas Taleb And Philip E. Tetlock
Abstract:There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the "binaries", and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the "vanilla". Real world exposures tend to belong to the vanilla category,...
- Nassim Taleb: From Fat Tails To Fat Tony
Predictions of socioeconomic variables are as dependable as the horoscope—so let’s not rely on them in 2013. Instead we will need systems that don’t fall apart when we make a mistake. This may seem blindingly obvious but apparently it is too “trivial”,...
- George Soros Quote
“My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events. In this context, we must distinguish between events in financial markets and events in the real world. Events in financial markets determine financial success; events...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Heretical Thoughts About Science And Society - By Freeman Dyson
At the Wesco Annual Meeting, Charlie Munger said that we should listen more to Freeman Dyson and less to Al Gore. Here’s a good article to start on that path (thanks for the link, Bud). I think the first paragraph is very applicable to investing as...
Money and Finance
Michael Pettis: Revisiting my 2011 predictions
It is still too early for all of these predictions either to have materialized or to have failed, but I thought it might be useful to review them to see whether or not they have been reasonably accurate in describing unfolding events and, if not, how my model for thinking about global imbalances should be revised. My reason for doing this is not so much to keep score but rather that these predictions were almost necessary or logical outcomes of the savings imbalance model I implicitly use to understand the world, and so to the extent that my model is valid it should show up in the evolution of these predictions.
Obviously a truly clever economist never makes a verifiable prediction, and if he does he should never refer to that prediction subsequently, so it is with a sense of trepidation that I do so, but here goes:
- On The Difference Between Binary Prediction And True Exposure, With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments And Prediction Markets – By Nassim Nicholas Taleb And Philip E. Tetlock
Abstract:There are serious differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the "binaries", and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the "vanilla". Real world exposures tend to belong to the vanilla category,...
- Nassim Taleb: From Fat Tails To Fat Tony
Predictions of socioeconomic variables are as dependable as the horoscope—so let’s not rely on them in 2013. Instead we will need systems that don’t fall apart when we make a mistake. This may seem blindingly obvious but apparently it is too “trivial”,...
- George Soros Quote
“My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events. In this context, we must distinguish between events in financial markets and events in the real world. Events in financial markets determine financial success; events...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Heretical Thoughts About Science And Society - By Freeman Dyson
At the Wesco Annual Meeting, Charlie Munger said that we should listen more to Freeman Dyson and less to Al Gore. Here’s a good article to start on that path (thanks for the link, Bud). I think the first paragraph is very applicable to investing as...