Money and Finance
- Seth Klarman: Adopt An Absolute-performance Orientation
From Margin of Safety:Most institutional and many individual investors have adopted a relative-performance orientation...They invest with the goal of outperforming either the market, other investors, or both and are apparently indifferent as to whether...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Notes On Risk Management - Warts And All
One of the great challenges of investing is the distinction between hindsight and foresight. Hindsight treats each major advance, each market crash, each recession and each expansion as if their turning points were obvious, and extrapolates prevailing...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Marty Whitman And Third Avenue See Opportunity
Third Avenue focuses on bottom-up, fundamental analysis with an emphasis on buying and holding securities for the long term. Third Avenue pretty much ignores short-term general market movements. However, in light of the current market environment, we...
- Use The Market's Short-termism To Your Advantage
Here's a general criticism that I often hear about investing in companies with economic moats: Companies with economic moats always look expensive and they trade with premium multiples to the market. How can we invest with a suitable margin-of-safety...
Money and Finance
Mauboussin on Strategy: Where from Here?
This short essay covers three topics. First is a little perspective on recent events. Second are some thoughts on where we might go from here. And finally, a comment on the behavioral finance issues around what we are going through, with an emphasis on why it’s so hard to act in this type of an environment.
It’s important to open with a disclaimer that you should be circumspect about what we, or anyone else, have to say about the past, present or future. We humans tend to suffer from hindsight bias—we think we had more foresight than we did—and our predictions are frequently off the mark. So the goal here is not to make any predictions, but rather to point out salient features of what is going on and what those features might mean for the market.
To summarize, we believe this will prove to be a good time—and maybe even a great time—to invest for people with time horizons beyond a year or two. While there’s no way to know where the market will be in the short term, many conditions are in place for better performance. More directly, we believe the market at these levels represents substantial value for long-term investors.
It’s important to open with a disclaimer that you should be circumspect about what we, or anyone else, have to say about the past, present or future. We humans tend to suffer from hindsight bias—we think we had more foresight than we did—and our predictions are frequently off the mark. So the goal here is not to make any predictions, but rather to point out salient features of what is going on and what those features might mean for the market.
To summarize, we believe this will prove to be a good time—and maybe even a great time—to invest for people with time horizons beyond a year or two. While there’s no way to know where the market will be in the short term, many conditions are in place for better performance. More directly, we believe the market at these levels represents substantial value for long-term investors.
- Seth Klarman: Adopt An Absolute-performance Orientation
From Margin of Safety:Most institutional and many individual investors have adopted a relative-performance orientation...They invest with the goal of outperforming either the market, other investors, or both and are apparently indifferent as to whether...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Notes On Risk Management - Warts And All
One of the great challenges of investing is the distinction between hindsight and foresight. Hindsight treats each major advance, each market crash, each recession and each expansion as if their turning points were obvious, and extrapolates prevailing...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Marty Whitman And Third Avenue See Opportunity
Third Avenue focuses on bottom-up, fundamental analysis with an emphasis on buying and holding securities for the long term. Third Avenue pretty much ignores short-term general market movements. However, in light of the current market environment, we...
- Use The Market's Short-termism To Your Advantage
Here's a general criticism that I often hear about investing in companies with economic moats: Companies with economic moats always look expensive and they trade with premium multiples to the market. How can we invest with a suitable margin-of-safety...