Money and Finance
Buffett and Munger on How to be a Hack [H/T The Big Picture] (LINK)
I finally got to the second two segments ("Inside Homs", "Mindfulness") from the latest 60 Minutes, both of which were interesting (LINK)
The Conventional Wisdom On Oil Is Always Wrong (LINK)
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Warren Buffett on CNBC.... Links to videos: Warren Buffett: When stocks go down it's good news Warren Buffett: Negative effects of low oil Warren Buffett: Expected rails to do better Warren Buffett: Earning power our annual goal Distracted driver...
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Catching back up after a few days in Miami... PBS Program: E.O. Wilson – Of Ants and Men, premieres Wednesday, September 30, 2015 (LINK) Related book: Journey to the Ants: A Story of Scientific ExplorationA Dozen Things Learned from Charlie Munger...
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An old (July 1999) article on Warren Buffett worth reviewing: The Warren Buffett You Don't Know [H/T Linc] (LINK) ValueWalk with another excerpt from Arlington Value's annual letter (LINK) Bust A Move: Tap Dancing to Work (LINK) This...
- The Calm Before The Storm - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb And Gregory F. Treverton
Link to article: The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability, and Vice Versa The divergent tales of Syria and Lebanon demonstrate that the best early warning signs of instability are found not in historical data but in underlying...
- Gmo: Jeremy Grantham's 1q 2009 Letter
The Loss of “Near Certainties” in Investing First, let me lament the loss of near certainties in investing. The financial and economic collapse that I described as “the most widely predicted surprise in the history of finance” about 18 months...
Money and Finance
Links
Buffett and Munger on How to be a Hack [H/T The Big Picture] (LINK)
Related book: The Warren Buffett PortfolioBenedict Evans on the a16z podcast discussing his article "New questions in mobile" (LINK)
I finally got to the second two segments ("Inside Homs", "Mindfulness") from the latest 60 Minutes, both of which were interesting (LINK)
The Conventional Wisdom On Oil Is Always Wrong (LINK)
While the title of the above article on oil says "Always", the actual wording in the article is "almost always wrong." This reminded me of an excerpt from George Soros' The Alchemy of Finance:
In other words, financial markets constantly anticipate events, both on the positive and the negative side, which fail to materialize exactly because they have been anticipated. No wonder that financial markets get so excited in anticipating events that seem quite harmless in retrospect! It is an old joke that the stock market has predicted seven of the last two recessions. We can now understand why that should be so. By the same token, financial crashes tend to occur only when they are unexpected.This last point should not be overstated. There are many events that actually occur in spite of the fact that they were widely anticipated. The collapse in oil prices is a case in point; the outbreak of the Second World War was another. It has become fashionable to be a contrarian, but to bet against prevailing expectations is far from safe. It will be recalled that, in the boom/bust model, events tend to reinforce prevailing expectations most of the time and contradict them only at the inflection points; and inflection points are notoriously difficult to identify. Now that the contrarian viewpoint has become the prevailing bias, I have become a confirmed anti-contrarian.
- Links
Warren Buffett on CNBC.... Links to videos: Warren Buffett: When stocks go down it's good news Warren Buffett: Negative effects of low oil Warren Buffett: Expected rails to do better Warren Buffett: Earning power our annual goal Distracted driver...
- Links
Catching back up after a few days in Miami... PBS Program: E.O. Wilson – Of Ants and Men, premieres Wednesday, September 30, 2015 (LINK) Related book: Journey to the Ants: A Story of Scientific ExplorationA Dozen Things Learned from Charlie Munger...
- Links
An old (July 1999) article on Warren Buffett worth reviewing: The Warren Buffett You Don't Know [H/T Linc] (LINK) ValueWalk with another excerpt from Arlington Value's annual letter (LINK) Bust A Move: Tap Dancing to Work (LINK) This...
- The Calm Before The Storm - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb And Gregory F. Treverton
Link to article: The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability, and Vice Versa The divergent tales of Syria and Lebanon demonstrate that the best early warning signs of instability are found not in historical data but in underlying...
- Gmo: Jeremy Grantham's 1q 2009 Letter
The Loss of “Near Certainties” in Investing First, let me lament the loss of near certainties in investing. The financial and economic collapse that I described as “the most widely predicted surprise in the history of finance” about 18 months...