Related book: Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the WorldThe new Leithner Letters are now available (Part 1, Part 2)
Related speech (from October): The Ultra-Easy Money ExperimentHussman Weekly Market Comment: Warning with a Capital "W" (LINK)
In a market return/risk classification that is already the most negative we identify, where a sustained period of speculation has given way increasing risk-aversion, the position of the market relative to very widely identified “support” (about the 1820 level on the S&P 500) is of particular note.
Columbia: Ideas at Work - The Centennial Issue [H/T Favio] (LINK)... The present widely-followed “support” shelf for the S&P 500 is roughly 14% below the 2015 market peak, but most domestic and international indices have already broken corresponding support levels. Given the obscene valuations at the 2015 peak, my impression is that a run-of-the-mill completion of the current market cycle (neither an unusual nor worst-case scenario from a historical perspective) would comprise an additional market decline of roughly 40-50% from present levels. I certainly don’t expect that kind of market loss in one fell swoop. Rather, my immediate concern is that the first leg of this decline could be quite steep.
In celebration of Columbia Business School’s Centennial we sat down with twenty-five professors to discuss the single biggest question facing researchers in their field. From lingering questions left in the wake of the global financial crisis and the future of the global economy to the way we make choices and the very idea of what makes us human, these are just some of the questions that will define the next century at the very center of business.Iran’s Revolutionary Grandchildren (LINK) [H/T @WalterIsaacson, who wrote "For those who truly wish to understand Iran, look at the Revolutionary Grandchildren."]