Money and Finance
- Nassim Taleb Quote
“Seize any opportunity, or anything that looks like opportunity. They are rare, much rarer than you think. Remember that positive Black Swans have a necessary first step: you need to be exposed to them. Many people do not realize that they are getting...
- Michael Burry's 2008 1st Quarter Letter
Thanks to Dang for reminding me about these letters being online, which prompted me to go back and read this one, which is full of great insights. Earlier this month, I took my family on our first extended vacation far away from California, and we ran...
- Nassim Taleb Quote
“Don’t look for the precise and the local. Simply, do not be narrow-minded. The great discoverer Pasteur, who came up with the notion that chance favors the prepared, understood that you do not look for something particular every morning but work...
- Nassim Taleb On Living With Black Swans
Thanks to Steve F. for passing this along. Nassim Taleb is a literary essayist, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader and professor of risk engineering at The Polytechnic Institute of New York University. But he is best known these days as the author...
- Why Did The Crisis Of 2008 Happen? - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Found via Farnam Street.Summary of Causes: The interplay of the following five forces, all linked to the misperception, misunderstanding, and hiding of the risks of consequential low probability events (Black Swans). I-CAUSES 1) Increase in hidden risks...
Money and Finance
Learning to Love Volatility – By Nassim Taleb
Several years before the financial crisis descended on us, I put forward the concept of "black swans": large events that are both unexpected and highly consequential. We never see black swans coming, but when they do arrive, they profoundly shape our world: Think of World War I, 9/11, the Internet, the rise of Google.
In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term. Still, through some mental bias, people think in hindsight that they "sort of" considered the possibility of such events; this gives them confidence in continuing to formulate predictions. But our tools for forecasting and risk measurement cannot begin to capture black swans. Indeed, our faith in these tools make it more likely that we will continue to take dangerous, uninformed risks.
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Related book: Antifragile
- Nassim Taleb Quote
“Seize any opportunity, or anything that looks like opportunity. They are rare, much rarer than you think. Remember that positive Black Swans have a necessary first step: you need to be exposed to them. Many people do not realize that they are getting...
- Michael Burry's 2008 1st Quarter Letter
Thanks to Dang for reminding me about these letters being online, which prompted me to go back and read this one, which is full of great insights. Earlier this month, I took my family on our first extended vacation far away from California, and we ran...
- Nassim Taleb Quote
“Don’t look for the precise and the local. Simply, do not be narrow-minded. The great discoverer Pasteur, who came up with the notion that chance favors the prepared, understood that you do not look for something particular every morning but work...
- Nassim Taleb On Living With Black Swans
Thanks to Steve F. for passing this along. Nassim Taleb is a literary essayist, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader and professor of risk engineering at The Polytechnic Institute of New York University. But he is best known these days as the author...
- Why Did The Crisis Of 2008 Happen? - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Found via Farnam Street.Summary of Causes: The interplay of the following five forces, all linked to the misperception, misunderstanding, and hiding of the risks of consequential low probability events (Black Swans). I-CAUSES 1) Increase in hidden risks...