Karl Popper: Conjectures and Refutations
Money and Finance

Karl Popper: Conjectures and Refutations


“Popper introduced the mechanism of conjectures and refutations, which works as follows: you formulate a (bold) conjecture and you start looking for the observation that would prove you wrong. This is the alternative to our search for confirmatory instances. If you think the task is easy, you will be disappointed—few humans have a natural ability to do this. I confess that I am not one of them; it does not come naturally to me.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan





- Nassim Taleb Quote
"So the central tenet of the epistemology I advocate is as follows: we know a lot more what is wrong than what is right, or, phrased according to the fragile/robust classification, negative knowledge (what is wrong, what does not work) is more robust...

- Nassim Taleb Quote
“We humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events. We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness. We feel responsible for the good stuff, but not for...

- Complimentary Quotes From Nassim Taleb And Howard Marks
“The Black Swans we imagine, discuss, and worry about do not resemble those likely to be Black Swans. We worry about the wrong “improbable” events……We like to think about specific and known Black Swans when in fact the very nature of randomness...

- Nassim Taleb Quote
"Narrative, as well as its associated mechanism of salience of the sensational fact, can mess up our projection of the odds." -Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan ...

- Nassim Taleb Quote
"But promoting philosophical skepticism is not quite the mission of this book. If awareness of the Black Swan problem can lead us into withdrawal and extreme skepticism, I take here the exact opposite direction. I am interested in deeds and true empiricism....I...



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