Money and Finance
John Mauldin: Economists Are (Still) Clueless
The economic forecasts of mainstream economists are quite positive, if not enirely optimistic, reflecting the current data. Should we not take heart from that? Alas, no. I have been working the last few months with my co-author of Endgame, Jonathan Tepper, on a longer paper in which we discuss the economic affairs of the world. One of our pet amusements is to research just how bad economists really are at forecasting. (Of course, we ourselves get branded with that economist label from time to time, although most serious economists would rather not be associated with us.)
This week we look at some of our recent musings on that topic, triggered by a letter from a very serious economist who took umbrage when I wrote disparagingly about economists and forecasting a couple months ago.
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Prospect Magazine Interviews Tim Harford
Link to interview: Big data, bad prophets and Brian Cox: An interview with Tim HarfordYou write about economics for a wide audience, is that because you believe there’s some benefit in wider economic literacy? I do, but I also just find it fascinating....
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Barry Schwartz Interview
Found via Simoleon Sense. The European: The classical economic point of view is that peoples’ decisions results from a careful weighing of what will create the most desirable result. What do you advocate? Schwartz: Well, I think this picture is completely...
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Follow The Money - By James Grant
Thanks to Will for passing this along. The best economists are formidable intellects, but do they really know what they are talking about? Mankind missed a bet 2,000 years ago when no one thought to invest $100 or its equivalent in Roman coin in a certificate...
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F.a. Hayek's 1974 Nobel Speech: The Pretence Of Knowledge
The particular occasion of this lecture, combined with the chief practical problem which economists have to face today, have made the choice of its topic almost inevitable. On the one hand the still recent establishment of the Nobel Memorial Prize in...
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Smart Taxes: An Open Invitation To Join The Pigou Club – By N. Gregory Mankiw
As an economics educator, I have always been fascinated by topics about which there is a large gap between the beliefs of economists and those of the general public. For example, economists are generally supportive of free trade among nations, while the...
Money and Finance