Money and Finance
John Hussman – Why Prospective Returns Are Low - By Robert Huebscher
Monetary and fiscal policies have driven our economy into an unstable equilibrium, pushing investors into higher-yielding securities, according to John Hussman. But those higher yields are illusory, he said, because corporate profit margins are too high to be sustainable.
“This creates an environment where stock returns prospectively are very low,” Hussman said. “In fact, all returns are prospectively very low.”
Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Maryland-based Hussman Econometrics Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds. He rarely gives interviews and almost never speaks in public, but he spoke at the Wine Country Investment Conference last week. That event was sponsored by Mish Shedlock and his firm, California-based Sitka Pacific Capital Management, as a benefit for ALS, the disease which claimed Shedlock’s wife last year.
Quantitative easing (QE) has distorted market dynamics and pushed investors into riskier assets. “That is really the point of QE,” Hussman said. “It is to create discomfort and cause a search for yield. “
I’ll discuss Hussman’s opinions on monetary policy and corporate profit margins and his forecast for equity returns.
Related video: U.S. Stock Market Is ‘Overvalued, Overbought and Overbullish’: John Hussman
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Links
For those interested, this course from The Great Courses has been recommended to me by a wise man, and it seems like a good Charlie Munger/worldly wisdom type of course (the video download version is currently on sale for $109.95): The Origin and Evolution...
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Hussman Weekly Market Comment: This Time Is Different, Yet With The Same Ending
Link to: This Time is Different, Yet with the Same EndingThe Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing has produced a historically prolonged period of speculative yield-seeking by investors starved for safe return. The problem with simply...
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Jim Chanos' Wine Country Conference Presentation (video)
The slides to go with the video were previously posted HERE. John Hussman's (previously posted) and Mish's video presentations from the conference are also available HERE. Link
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Old Welling@weeden Interviews
Here are a few older issues of welling@weeden that I thought were interesting, and a link to some others that I haven’t read yet.John Hussman 2003John Hussman 2007Chris Bloomstran 2003Frank Martin 2006Link to more: HERE
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Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Anything But Academic
I’m a little late getting to this, but I think it is another good piece from John Hussman. Presently, however, the debate about the long-term economic fallout from this defense of bank bondholders is anything but academic. I recognize that I have been...
Money and Finance