Money and Finance
James Montier May 2008 Memo: Joining the dark side: Pirates, Spies and Short Sellers
What should you look for in a good short candidate? A superficially easy question, but one that most analysts don’t seem to like to answer. A fact evidenced by a mere 10-15% of recommendations being sells! We examine three factors that seem to add up to a pretty good indication of a shorting opportunity. Essentially we look for expensive stocks, with deteriorating fundamentals and poor capital discipline. This ‘unholy’ trinity results in a basket that has historically declined around 6% p.a. Running the screen today reveals the highest ever number of stocks passing the shorting criteria. Perhaps it is time to join the dark side.
-
Jim Chanos, Bad News Bear, Urges Market Prudence
On the U.S. stock market Chanos: “A few years back, I felt the U.S. was the best house in a bad neighborhood for a cliché hackneyed term and certainly there were better places that I think on a macro basis to be short like China. Our thinking is changed...
-
James Montier On 2008/2009...
James Montier’s answer to a follow-up question at the European Investing Summit 2012 (for those interested, the next Investing Summit is on Japan and will take place November 7-8....more information can be found HERE). Question: Going back to the lowest...
-
Jim Chanos Quote
From the Graham and Doddsville Newsletter - Spring 2012, in response to a question about mistakes analysts make: “One of the biggest things I see quite often is getting too close to management. We never meet with management. For all of the bad asymmetries...
-
Screen
Over the years, I've found it useful when James Montier (writing from wherever he was at the time) would run a value screen and show the number of names that came up. It gave another data point to compare the attractiveness of ideas in the market...
-
A World Of Winners, Warren's Way
How does he do it? Author Robert Hagstrom tried to compile Buffett's key investing strategies in his 1994 best-seller, The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor. With Hagstrom's book as a source, we at...
Money and Finance