Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Secular Bear Markets - Volatility Without Return
Present market and economic conditions highlight a fairly dramatic disparity between continued economic and valuation headwinds (particularly on a “cyclical” horizon of 18-24 months) and complacent short-term conditions that rest on the continuation...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Leading Indicators And The Risk Of A Blindside Recession
Over the past few weeks, investors used to setting their economic expectations based on a "stream of anecdotes" approach have seen their economic views evolve roughly as follows: "After a brief 'scare' during the third quarter, economic reports...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Impulse Response
Except for a burst of census hiring that briefly pushed payroll growth above trend during the second quarter of this year, job growth has been perpetually below trend over the past two years. During the post-war period, the civilian labor force has historically...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: When "Positive Surprises" Are Surprisingly Meaningless
In recent weeks, investors have abandoned all material concern about the likelihood of oncoming recession, largely because U.S. economic reports - though very tepid on an absolute basis - have come in persistently "better than expectations." Objectively, the best showing has been in new claims for unemployment. The 4-week average has eased slightly below 400,000 in recent weeks, to a level that would no rmally be consistent with slightly positive payroll growth, though not enough to absorb normal labor force growth (the unemployment rate dropped last month partly because hundreds of thousands of people stopped looking for work). My concern here is in taking these labor numbers as predictive, in the face of an abrupt drop in federal withholding tax deposits.
As economist John Williams observes, "starting in October, a divergence developed: Whereas year-to-year change in BLS estimated payroll earnings continued at a more-or-less constant, positive level, tax receipts fell quite markedly. Where the Treasury numbers reflect full reporting, the BLS data are sampled, heavily modeled and usually heavily revised. The implication is that the BLS has overstated average earnings and payrolls meaningfully in recent months."
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Secular Bear Markets - Volatility Without Return
Present market and economic conditions highlight a fairly dramatic disparity between continued economic and valuation headwinds (particularly on a “cyclical” horizon of 18-24 months) and complacent short-term conditions that rest on the continuation...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Leading Indicators And The Risk Of A Blindside Recession
Over the past few weeks, investors used to setting their economic expectations based on a "stream of anecdotes" approach have seen their economic views evolve roughly as follows: "After a brief 'scare' during the third quarter, economic reports...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Impulse Response
Except for a burst of census hiring that briefly pushed payroll growth above trend during the second quarter of this year, job growth has been perpetually below trend over the past two years. During the post-war period, the civilian labor force has historically...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...