Money and Finance
- Links
Nepal earthquake reduces World Heritage sites to rubble (LINK) Great chart summarizing the strategies of those profiled in the book The Outsiders (LINK) TED Talk - Nick Bostrom: What happens when our computers get smarter than we are? (LINK) Related book...
- Links
William Cohan catches up with Jamie Dimon [H/T Will] (LINK) Dan Harris on Charlie Rose discussing his book, 10% Happier (video) (LINK) Philosophical Economics - Introducing the Total Return EPS Index: A New Tool for Analyzing Fundamental...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History
Link to: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that bullish sentiment surged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The Rain
Link to: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The RainBased on valuation metrics that have demonstrated a near-90% correlation with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, not only historically but also in recent decades, we estimate that U.S. equities...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Siren's Song Of The Unfinished Half-cycle
Given the extent and maturity of the recent advance, it’s very odd that analysts are now beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a secular bull market. These notions are based not on the level of valuation, nor on the duration of...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Hook
We are in very familiar – if frustrating – terrain here. While valuations are not as extreme as they were in 2000, the level of investor confidence in “free money” is nearly identical, as is my conviction that this belief in free money will end in tears. Even on the optimistic assumption of 6.3% nominal economic growth for the indefinite future, we estimate a probable 10-year nominal total return on the S&P 500 averaging just 3.6% annually (see Investment, Speculation, Valuation and Tinker Bell for a set of historically accurate models that share that conclusion). Above, I’ve chosen quotations spanning several months in 2000 to emphasize the drawn-out nature of the 2000 peak – the seeming “resilience” of the market above the 1400 level certainly did not prevent the market from losing half of its value over the following 2-year period, wiping out the entire total return of the S&P 500 – in excess of Treasury bill returns – all the way back to May 1996.
- Links
Nepal earthquake reduces World Heritage sites to rubble (LINK) Great chart summarizing the strategies of those profiled in the book The Outsiders (LINK) TED Talk - Nick Bostrom: What happens when our computers get smarter than we are? (LINK) Related book...
- Links
William Cohan catches up with Jamie Dimon [H/T Will] (LINK) Dan Harris on Charlie Rose discussing his book, 10% Happier (video) (LINK) Philosophical Economics - Introducing the Total Return EPS Index: A New Tool for Analyzing Fundamental...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History
Link to: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that bullish sentiment surged...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The Rain
Link to: It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The RainBased on valuation metrics that have demonstrated a near-90% correlation with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, not only historically but also in recent decades, we estimate that U.S. equities...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Siren's Song Of The Unfinished Half-cycle
Given the extent and maturity of the recent advance, it’s very odd that analysts are now beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a secular bull market. These notions are based not on the level of valuation, nor on the duration of...