Money and Finance
- Links
The “Enemies” of Warren Buffett [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK) Two Mental Models (and 24 Things): Network Effects and Critical Mass - by Tren Griffin (LINK) Utility Investor With Ties to Buffett Joins World's 400 Richest [H/T Linc] (LINK)...
- Howard Marks Quote
From The Most Important Thing:In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things. Values can evaporate, estimates can be wrong, circumstances can change and “sure things” can fail. However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: •...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History
Link to: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that bullish sentiment surged...
- Howard Marks On Cycles...
From The Most Important Thing:I think it’s essential to remember that just about everything is cyclical. There’s little I’m certain of, but these things are true: Cycles always prevail eventually. Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Closing Arguments: Nothing Further, Your Honor
“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Market Peaks are a Process
Link to: Market Peaks are a Process
It’s fascinating how investors come to forget that markets move in cycles and not perpetual diagonal lines. As value investor Howard Marks wrote in The Most Important Thing, "Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one." A normal, run-of-the mill cyclical bear market wipes out more than half of the preceding bull market advance. We should not be surprised at all to see the S&P 500 back at 2010 levels or below over the completion of the present cycle. From a valuation standpoint, we estimate that the S&P 500 Index would have to fall to the 1000 level to bring prospective 10-year nominal total returns toward their historical norm of about 10% annually.
- Links
The “Enemies” of Warren Buffett [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK) Two Mental Models (and 24 Things): Network Effects and Critical Mass - by Tren Griffin (LINK) Utility Investor With Ties to Buffett Joins World's 400 Richest [H/T Linc] (LINK)...
- Howard Marks Quote
From The Most Important Thing:In investing, as in life, there are very few sure things. Values can evaporate, estimates can be wrong, circumstances can change and “sure things” can fail. However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: •...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History
Link to: We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that bullish sentiment surged...
- Howard Marks On Cycles...
From The Most Important Thing:I think it’s essential to remember that just about everything is cyclical. There’s little I’m certain of, but these things are true: Cycles always prevail eventually. Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don’t...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Closing Arguments: Nothing Further, Your Honor
“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting...