Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Fed Policy - No Theory, No Evidence, No Transmission Mechanism
Undoubtedly, one of the main factors prompting a benign response to what is now virtually certain recession and virtually certain Greek default is the hope that the Fed will launch some new monetary intervention. While Wall Street appears to view the present weakness as a replay of 2010, it is strikingly clear that the evidence tells a different story, with a broad ensemble of data implying near-certainty of oncoming recession (see An Imminent Downturn ).
While we have to allow for the possibility of a knee-jerk speculative response in the event of further Fed intervention, it is also much clearer now than it was in 2010 that quantitative easing does not work, and that even its marginal effects have reached the point of diminishing returns. To a large extent, the only basis for further Fed action here is superstition in the absence of either fact or theory.
Ultimately, effective policy acts to relieve some constraint on the economy that is actually binding. Effective policy has some "transmission mechanism," where changes in the policy target can be expected to translate into decisions that improve the allocation of resources and the level of activity in the economy. Effective policy is also preferably grounded in historical evidence that supports its effectiveness, or at the very least does not contradict the action. At present, the policy menu advocated by Ben Bernanke has none of these advantages.
- Is Monetary Policy A Science? - The Interaction Of Theory And Practice Over The Last 50 Years – By William R. White
And in case you missed the two quotes from White that I posted on Twitter last night as I was listening to his McAlvany podcast (these were in regards to economic modeling and the desire to try and control the economy through monetary policy): "I'm...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide To X-treme Monetary And Fiscal Conditions
Government intervention in the U.S. economy is approaching the point where probable long-term costs exceed short-term benefits – straining to maintain the pace of extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that have repeatedly nudged the U.S. economy...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Europe: Just Getting Warmed Up
Last week, the financial markets mounted a striking shift back to the "risk-on" trade, as investor concerns about a recession were abandoned, and Wall Street came to believe that Europe will easily contain its banking problems. Accordingly, downside protection...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Recession, Restructuring, And The Ring Fence
In recent months, our recession models have forcefully shifted to warning of oncoming recession. Our initial concern in August was based on a fairly compact set of indicators that we track as a Recession Warning Composite (see Recession Warning, and The...
- The Absolute Return Letter - November 2010: Four Rather Sick Patients
For a world which continues to be on life support – in the form of unsustainably large fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates – policy makers are fast running out of options. One of the options left is quantitative easing and rumours are rife...