Money and Finance
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: How To Build A Time Machine
With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in their latest reports, coincident economic indicators...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Dwelling In Uncertainty
As of last week, the combination of evidence we observe continues to be associated with strong recession risk and the likelihood of a "whipsaw trap" in the stock market. We'll respond to new data as it changes, but I expect that the primary window...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Have We Avoided A Recession?
In our view, it is very difficult to obtain useful views about economic direction using the standard "flow of anecdotes" approach that is the bread-and-butter of many analysts. The economic data reported daily are a mix of leading, coincident and lagging...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Europe: Just Getting Warmed Up
Last week, the financial markets mounted a striking shift back to the "risk-on" trade, as investor concerns about a recession were abandoned, and Wall Street came to believe that Europe will easily contain its banking problems. Accordingly, downside protection...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Recession, Restructuring, And The Ring Fence
In recent months, our recession models have forcefully shifted to warning of oncoming recession. Our initial concern in August was based on a fairly compact set of indicators that we track as a Recession Warning Composite (see Recession Warning, and The...
Money and Finance
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Enter, the Blindside Recession
In recent months, our measures of leading economic pressures have indicated the likelihood of an oncoming U.S. recession. Our view is based on the analysis of leading/coincident/lagging indicators (see Leading Indicators and the Risk of a Blindside Recession) as well as more statistical signal processing methods that extract "unobserved components" from noisy data (see the note on extracting economic signals in Do I Feel Lucky?). As Lakshman Achuthan at the ECRI has noted on the basis of different but related evidence, the verdict has been in for a while. The interim has been little more than waiting for the coincident data to catch up to the leading evidence that is already in place.
This wait is by no means over. As Achuthan has observed, economic data such as GDP and employment data are heavily revised over time. Very often, the first real-time negative GDP print occurs about two quarters after the recession actually begins. It is only later that the data are revised to show an earlier downturn. For that reason, it's important to pay attention to the joint action of numerous economic data points, rather than selecting any specific indicator as an "acid test." The joint evidence suggests that the U.S. economy has entered a recession that will later be marked as having started here and now.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: How To Build A Time Machine
With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in their latest reports, coincident economic indicators...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Dwelling In Uncertainty
As of last week, the combination of evidence we observe continues to be associated with strong recession risk and the likelihood of a "whipsaw trap" in the stock market. We'll respond to new data as it changes, but I expect that the primary window...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Have We Avoided A Recession?
In our view, it is very difficult to obtain useful views about economic direction using the standard "flow of anecdotes" approach that is the bread-and-butter of many analysts. The economic data reported daily are a mix of leading, coincident and lagging...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Europe: Just Getting Warmed Up
Last week, the financial markets mounted a striking shift back to the "risk-on" trade, as investor concerns about a recession were abandoned, and Wall Street came to believe that Europe will easily contain its banking problems. Accordingly, downside protection...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Recession, Restructuring, And The Ring Fence
In recent months, our recession models have forcefully shifted to warning of oncoming recession. Our initial concern in August was based on a fairly compact set of indicators that we track as a Recession Warning Composite (see Recession Warning, and The...