Money and Finance
- Garrett Hardin Quote
“The greatest folly is to accept expert statements uncritically. At the very least, we should always seek another opinion. Moreover, to the extent that time allows, we may become a little bit expert ourselves; but we don't have time enough to go...
- Walter Robb On whole Foods' Recession Lessons
Found via The Reformed Broker. We realized in January or February of 2008 that we were too expensive, as people perceived it. The price-value thing was not where we needed to be, and we started losing business. Then you get to a question about what quality...
- A Conversation With Outlier Malcolm Gladwell
Found via Farnam Street. Peter Cappelli: Many of us marvel at your books, which are about the intersection between small stories and small pieces of research that build up to something really fundamental and which, in a few cases, have become part of...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Don’t Blink! The Hazards Of Confidence - By Daniel Kahneman
We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the...
Money and Finance
HOW TO WIN AT FORECASTING: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock
There's a question that I've been asking myself for nearly three decades now and trying to get a research handle on, and that is why is the quality of public debate so low and why is it that the quality often seems to deteriorate the more important the stakes get?
About 30 years ago I started my work on expert political judgment. It was the height of the Cold War. There was a ferocious debate about how to deal with the Soviet Union. There was a liberal view; there was a conservative view. Each position led to certain predictions about how the Soviets would be likely to react to various policy initiatives.
One thing that became very clear, especially after Gorbachev came to power and confounded the predictions of both liberals and conservatives, was that even though nobody predicted the direction that Gorbachev was taking the Soviet Union, virtually everybody after the fact had a compelling explanation for it. We seemed to be working in what one psychologist called an "outcome irrelevant learning situation." People drew whatever lessons they wanted from history.
- Garrett Hardin Quote
“The greatest folly is to accept expert statements uncritically. At the very least, we should always seek another opinion. Moreover, to the extent that time allows, we may become a little bit expert ourselves; but we don't have time enough to go...
- Walter Robb On whole Foods' Recession Lessons
Found via The Reformed Broker. We realized in January or February of 2008 that we were too expensive, as people perceived it. The price-value thing was not where we needed to be, and we started losing business. Then you get to a question about what quality...
- A Conversation With Outlier Malcolm Gladwell
Found via Farnam Street. Peter Cappelli: Many of us marvel at your books, which are about the intersection between small stories and small pieces of research that build up to something really fundamental and which, in a few cases, have become part of...
- Known Unknowns - By Neel Kashkari
We believe investment managers can analyze numerous data sources and apply lessons learned from past economic cycles to make reasonable assessments about the global economic outlook. We also believe managers can make reasonable judgments about asset classes...
- Don’t Blink! The Hazards Of Confidence - By Daniel Kahneman
We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the...