Money and Finance
Hoisington Q4 2013 Letter
In The Theory of Interest, Irving Fisher, who Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman called America’s greatest economist, created the Fisher equation, which states the nominal bond yield is equal to the real yield plus expected inflation. It serves as the pillar of macroeconomics and as the foundational relationship of the bond market. It has been reconfirmed many times by scholarly examination and by the sheer force of historical experience. Examining periods of both low and high inflation offers insight into how each variable in the Fisher equation affects the outcome.
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Links
Robert Shiller article: The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations (LINK) Robert Shiller on CNBC (video) (LINK) Andrew Smithers: Long-term investing (LINK) Preventing Another Corinthian (LINK) John Kay: No universal law predicts the outcome...
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Richard Fisher On Cnbc
Links to videos: Fed's Fisher: We've 'Flooded the Market With Liquidity' Fed's Fisher: 'This is a Judgmental Business' Fed's Fisher: Dodd Frank Law 'Horribly Complex' Fed's Fisher: We Are Having a 'Massive'...
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Garett Jones On Fisher, Debt, And Deflation
Garett Jones of George Mason University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas of Irving Fisher on debt and deflation. In a book, Booms and Depressions and in a 1933 Econometrica article, Fisher argued that debt-fueled investment booms...
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Fight The Fed Model: The Relationship Between Stock Market Yields, Bond Market Yields, And Future Returns - By Cliff Asness (december 2002)
Abstract: The "Fed Model" has become a very popular yardstick for judging whether the U.S. stock market is fairly valued. The Fed Model compares the stock market's earnings yield (E/P) to the yield on long-term government bonds. In contrast, traditional...
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Hoisington Q2 Letter
The three competing theories for economic contractions are: 1) the Keynesian, 2) the Friedmanite, and 3) the Fisherian. The Keynesian view is that normal economic contractions are caused by an insufficiency of aggregate demand (or total spending). This...
Money and Finance