Money and Finance
- Book Tv: Lords Of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World
This interview is from 2009. Liaquat Ahamed presents in his book, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World that four of the world's central bankers attempted to rebuild the global economy following World War I but instead contributed to the...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: How To Build A Time Machine
With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in their latest reports, coincident economic indicators...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Have We Avoided A Recession?
In our view, it is very difficult to obtain useful views about economic direction using the standard "flow of anecdotes" approach that is the bread-and-butter of many analysts. The economic data reported daily are a mix of leading, coincident and lagging...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...
Money and Finance
History rhyming?
The excerpt below is from Liaquat Ahamed in Lords of Finance, writing about September 1929. It reminded me a little bit of today’s situation where stocks are close to highs, there is some positive economic data mixed with weak economic data, and you have some commentators with decent track records predicting we’re in a recession already while others thoroughly dismissing that claim. The excerpt below followed a discussion of the back and forth between Roger Babson (who was very bearish on the market) and Irving Fisher (who was very bullish on the market).
“The official chronicler of business cycles in the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a not-for-profit group founded in 1920, would declare, though many months later, that a recession had set in that August. But in September, no one was aware of it. There were the odd signs of economic slowdown, especially in some of the more interest-rate-sensitive sectors—automobile sales had peaked and construction had been down all year, but most short-term indicators, for example, steel production or railroad freight car loadings, remained exceptionally strong.
By the middle of the month, the market was back at its highs and Babson’s forecast of a crash had been thoroughly discredited. The broader indices even set new records—for example, the most widely used measure of the market, the New York Times index of commons stocks, reached its all time peak on September 19—though the Dow never did get quite back to 381.”
- Book Tv: Lords Of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World
This interview is from 2009. Liaquat Ahamed presents in his book, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World that four of the world's central bankers attempted to rebuild the global economy following World War I but instead contributed to the...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Roach Motel Monetary Policy
Strong leading indicators such as the CFNAI and the Philly Fed Index have been weak for many months, and the deterioration in new orders has moved from a slowing of growth to outright contraction in recent months. In the order of events, a slowing in...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: How To Build A Time Machine
With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in their latest reports, coincident economic indicators...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Have We Avoided A Recession?
In our view, it is very difficult to obtain useful views about economic direction using the standard "flow of anecdotes" approach that is the bread-and-butter of many analysts. The economic data reported daily are a mix of leading, coincident and lagging...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...