Money and Finance
From Greg Mankiw's Blog:
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"a strategy of desperation"
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My favorite book by Paul Krugman is Peddling Prosperity, which I once assigned in a course and still often recommend to students. A reader recently reminded me what the book says about the use of fiscal stimulus (page 32):
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When monetary expansion is ineffective, fiscal expansion...must take its place. Such a fiscal expansion can break the vicious circle of low spending and low incomes, "priming the pump" and getting the economy moving again. But remember this is no by any means an all-purpose policy recommendation; it is essentially a strategy of desperation, a dangerous drug to be prescribed only when the usual over-the-counter remedy of monetary policy has failed.
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Update: Jon Henke says that Paul has consistently expressed this view.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide To X-treme Monetary And Fiscal Conditions
Government intervention in the U.S. economy is approaching the point where probable long-term costs exceed short-term benefits – straining to maintain the pace of extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that have repeatedly nudged the U.S. economy...
- Gundlach: The Two Questions That Matter Most
Two questions stand out amid the complexity of the current economic and market environment, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, both of which relate to critical elements of fiscal and monetary policy and should guide portfolio construction for investors. Gundlach,...
- John Taylor On Econtalk
John Taylor of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the state of the economy and the prospects for recovery. Taylor argues that the design of the fiscal stimulus was ineffective and monetary policy, so-called quantitative easing,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...
- Michael Farrell - Annaly: Just Save, Baby, Just Save
As we sit on the precipice of the greatest fiscal stimulus package in our nation’s history, the question we are asked most often during our discussions with market participants is “When will it end?” Well, we can’t tell you the exact date, but...
Money and Finance
Greg Mankiw, Paul Krugman, and Fiscal Stimulus
From Greg Mankiw's Blog:
-
-
"a strategy of desperation"
-
My favorite book by Paul Krugman is Peddling Prosperity, which I once assigned in a course and still often recommend to students. A reader recently reminded me what the book says about the use of fiscal stimulus (page 32):
-
When monetary expansion is ineffective, fiscal expansion...must take its place. Such a fiscal expansion can break the vicious circle of low spending and low incomes, "priming the pump" and getting the economy moving again. But remember this is no by any means an all-purpose policy recommendation; it is essentially a strategy of desperation, a dangerous drug to be prescribed only when the usual over-the-counter remedy of monetary policy has failed.
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Update: Jon Henke says that Paul has consistently expressed this view.
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..........
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Mankiw's view:
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Proposed Fiscal Stimulus: My View
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Several reporters have called or emailed to get my view of the fiscal stimulus agreement announced today. Here it is.
Several reporters have called or emailed to get my view of the fiscal stimulus agreement announced today. Here it is.
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I am personally skeptical that the economic weakness is sufficient at this point to justify such a package. Yesterday CBO came out with its forecast, including "growth for the year as a whole of under 2 percent and an increase in the unemployment rate to an average of 5.1 percent." That is similar to the current predictions of some of the best private forecasters, who put near-term growth between 1 and 2 percent.
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In this environment, I would prefer to rely on monetary policy as the main source of macroeconomic stimulus. If there were a stronger case for a short-run demand-oriented fiscal stimulus, I would view the compromise package announced today as reasonable. But given where the economy is right now and the best forecasts of where it is heading, the fiscal package seems unnecessary as a short-run measure, while in the long run adding to the debt burden without doing anything to improve incentives for economic growth.
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Addendum: The fact sheet says, "This relief would be available to everyone with taxable income less than $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for married couples filing jointly. It will be phased out for taxpayers above those income thresholds." That phase out is an increase in the effective marginal tax rate. So while the plan gives a short-run boost to aggregate demand, it has a short-run depressing effect on aggregate supply.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Out On A Limb - An Investor's Guide To X-treme Monetary And Fiscal Conditions
Government intervention in the U.S. economy is approaching the point where probable long-term costs exceed short-term benefits – straining to maintain the pace of extraordinary fiscal and monetary measures that have repeatedly nudged the U.S. economy...
- Gundlach: The Two Questions That Matter Most
Two questions stand out amid the complexity of the current economic and market environment, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, both of which relate to critical elements of fiscal and monetary policy and should guide portfolio construction for investors. Gundlach,...
- John Taylor On Econtalk
John Taylor of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the state of the economy and the prospects for recovery. Taylor argues that the design of the fiscal stimulus was ineffective and monetary policy, so-called quantitative easing,...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues
Last week, the markets responded to further evidence of a slowing in economic activity, including a further deterioration in new claims for unemployment. Given that the sharpest deterioration in leading economic measures such as our Recession Warning...
- Michael Farrell - Annaly: Just Save, Baby, Just Save
As we sit on the precipice of the greatest fiscal stimulus package in our nation’s history, the question we are asked most often during our discussions with market participants is “When will it end?” Well, we can’t tell you the exact date, but...