Money and Finance
Link to: GMO's Q3 2014 Letter
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It
Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates...
- Gmo's 3q 2013 Letter
Link to: GMO's 3Q 2013 Letter .......... Inker excerpt:But enough about the details. The basic point for us remains the same – the U.S. stock market is trading at levels that do not seem capable of supporting the type of returns that investors...
- Alleghany Annual Letter
Found via the Santangel's Review ‘Value Links’ email. If you would like to be added to that mailing list, please email Steve at [email protected]. Investors are faced with an unattractive array of investment options today, ranging from no return...
- Jeremy Grantham's 4q Letter: "the Longest Quarterly Letter Ever"
Jeremy Grantham's 4Q Letter is comprised of three sections: Investment Advice from Your Uncle Polonius, Your Grandchildren Have No Value (And Other Deficiencies of Capitalism), and Investment Observations for the New Year...........Excerpts: Inflation...
- Jeremy Grantham Guarantees Gold Will Crash - By Robert Huebscher
Jeremy Grantham, the investor celebrated for his ability to spot and exploit bubbles in asset classes, guaranteed yesterday that the current bull market in gold will end. His proof? He bought some – for his own account – at the end of last week. His...
Money and Finance
GMO's Q3 2014 Letter
Link to: GMO's Q3 2014 Letter
GMO's 3Q 2014 Letter includes Ben Inker's "Is This Purgatory, Or Is It Hell?" and Jeremy Grantham's "Bubble Watch Update" and "The Beginning of the End of the Fossil Fuel Revolution (From Golden Goose to Cooked Goose)"
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As always, the prudent investor (unlike the political year three) should definitely recognize overvaluation, factor in regression to the mean, and calculate the longer-term returns that result from this process. More easily, such prudent investors can use our seven-year numbers, which have a decent long-term record measured when we have viewed markets as overpriced, as we believe they are today, and a better record measured in the periods after bubbles break. The other necessary ingredients to the investment mix are suitable measures of risk, and when these are added to estimated returns we believe efficient portfolios can be produced. On our data, with U.S. large cap equities offering negative returns (-1.5%) except for high quality stocks (+2.2%), with foreign developed and emerging equities overpriced (+3.7%), and with bonds and cash also very unattractive, investors have to twist and turn to find even a semi-respectable portfolio. It is a particularly tough process today with nowhere to hide and no very good investments compared to, say, the time around the 2000 bubble when there were several.
...My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts, as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less. Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help.
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It
Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates...
- Gmo's 3q 2013 Letter
Link to: GMO's 3Q 2013 Letter .......... Inker excerpt:But enough about the details. The basic point for us remains the same – the U.S. stock market is trading at levels that do not seem capable of supporting the type of returns that investors...
- Alleghany Annual Letter
Found via the Santangel's Review ‘Value Links’ email. If you would like to be added to that mailing list, please email Steve at [email protected]. Investors are faced with an unattractive array of investment options today, ranging from no return...
- Jeremy Grantham's 4q Letter: "the Longest Quarterly Letter Ever"
Jeremy Grantham's 4Q Letter is comprised of three sections: Investment Advice from Your Uncle Polonius, Your Grandchildren Have No Value (And Other Deficiencies of Capitalism), and Investment Observations for the New Year...........Excerpts: Inflation...
- Jeremy Grantham Guarantees Gold Will Crash - By Robert Huebscher
Jeremy Grantham, the investor celebrated for his ability to spot and exploit bubbles in asset classes, guaranteed yesterday that the current bull market in gold will end. His proof? He bought some – for his own account – at the end of last week. His...