Money and Finance
China set to continue supersize binge - By Edward Chancellor
It is easy to see why Chinese premier Wen Jiabao is calling for a “greater emphasis on growth”. China’s property market is stressed and the country’s main export market, Europe, is contracting. Several economic indicators, including electricity consumption, point to an economic downturn as severe as China experienced after the Lehman bust. Beijing’s mandarins have woken up to an old problem, but not found new answers. A proposed new stimulus plan suggests more money will be wasted on trophy projects, more bad debts will accumulate in the banking system, and China’s economic imbalances will continue to deteriorate.
-
Stan Druckenmiller On China
Found via ValueWalk. Stan Druckenmiller: The growth in credit at a time when GDP growth is slowing is a problem for China. And I think this is the 2009-11 stimulus coming back to bite. I understand that it had to be done to fund entrepreneurs and the...
-
Gmo White Paper: Feeding The Dragon: Why China's Credit System Looks Vulnerable - By Edward Chancellor And Mike Monnelly
The conventional view is that China’s economy has recently experienced a "soft landing" and is now poised for take-off. In this white paper, GMO’s Edward Chancellor and Mike Monnelly tell a rather different story, namely that the Chinese credit system...
-
China’s Cash Pile Provides No Shield - By Edward Chancellor
China sits on the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves. Many people view Beijing’s $3tn cash pile as providing economic insurance for years to come. From this perspective, the fact that China has just produced its first quarterly balance of payments...
-
Gmo: Something's Fishy In China
A wide gulf separates the two most prominent views regarding China’s future. Faced with slowing economic growth, one side says its leaders will deftly navigate a soft landing, while the other claims it will face an implosion similar to those that befell...
-
The Absolute Return Letter - February 2011: Find The Hat
I suspect there is not one but many hats hidden in the national accounts of China and, thanks to Wikileaks, we now have a very public figure admitting as much. In a leaked 2007 cable Li Keqiang, who is the favourite to become the next premier, confided...
Money and Finance