Money and Finance
- Qe And The Economic Risks Of Underfunding - By Andrew Smithers
Link to article: QE and the economic risks of underfundingIn the past governments have funded their deficits – for example, they have borrowed in the bond market rather than through treasury bills. This is despite the fact that, for the past 80 years,...
- Target Risk, Not Return
From Seth Klarman, via Margin of Safety:Targeting investment returns leads investors to focus on upside potential rather than on downside risk....Rather than targeting a desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should target...
- Bill Gross – May 2012 Investment Outlook: Tuesday Never Comes
The current acceleration of credit via central bank policies will likely produce a positive rate of real economic growth this year for most developed countries, but the structural distortions brought about by zero bound interest rates will limit that...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Simple Arithmetic
As I've noted several times in recent months, bond market spreads imply very low near-term (3-6 month) probability of default in any Euro-area country. A sovereign default is much more likely to occur near the end of the next bear market, whenever...
- Little Logic To Bond World Amid Current Risk Phobias - By Jim Grant
"There are no bad bonds, only bad prices," the traders used to say. They should say it again, only louder. In the spring of 1984, long-dated Treasuries went begging at yields of nearly 14 per cent in the context of an inflation rate of just 4 per cent....
Money and Finance
Bill Gross – April 2012 Investment Outlook: The Great Escape: Delivering in a Delevering World
When interest rates cannot be dramatically lowered further or risk spreads significantly compressed, the momentum begins to shift, not necessarily suddenly, but gradually – yields moving mildly higher and spreads stabilizing or moving slightly wider.
In such a mildly reflating world, unless you want to earn an inflation-adjusted return of minus 2%-3% as offered by Treasury bills, then you must take risk in some form.
We favor high quality, shorter duration and inflation-protected bonds; dividend paying stocks with a preference for developing over developed markets; and inflation-sensitive, supply-constrained commodity products.
- Qe And The Economic Risks Of Underfunding - By Andrew Smithers
Link to article: QE and the economic risks of underfundingIn the past governments have funded their deficits – for example, they have borrowed in the bond market rather than through treasury bills. This is despite the fact that, for the past 80 years,...
- Target Risk, Not Return
From Seth Klarman, via Margin of Safety:Targeting investment returns leads investors to focus on upside potential rather than on downside risk....Rather than targeting a desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should target...
- Bill Gross – May 2012 Investment Outlook: Tuesday Never Comes
The current acceleration of credit via central bank policies will likely produce a positive rate of real economic growth this year for most developed countries, but the structural distortions brought about by zero bound interest rates will limit that...
- Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Simple Arithmetic
As I've noted several times in recent months, bond market spreads imply very low near-term (3-6 month) probability of default in any Euro-area country. A sovereign default is much more likely to occur near the end of the next bear market, whenever...
- Little Logic To Bond World Amid Current Risk Phobias - By Jim Grant
"There are no bad bonds, only bad prices," the traders used to say. They should say it again, only louder. In the spring of 1984, long-dated Treasuries went begging at yields of nearly 14 per cent in the context of an inflation rate of just 4 per cent....