Money and Finance
IF THERE is one person who is pleased at recent events, it is Albert Edwards, currently the Societe Generale strategist but previously at Dresdner Kleinwort. He has been plugging his Ice Age thesis since 1996, arguing that much of the developed world would follow Japan in seeing both equity valuations and bond yields decline. And he has been sceptical throughout this rally, proving rather better at assessing events last year, for example, than the bulls at Goldman Sachs.
- Albert Edwards: "the Market Is Once Again In A Hope Phase..."
One key lesson from Japan is that an essential ingredient to the end of a long valuation bear market is revulsion. It is when buyers-on-dips become sellers-on-rallies. It is when volume dries up to almost nothing. It is the loss of hope. In Japan we saw...
- Albert Edwards: The S&p At 400 Is Almost Inevitable
Jeremy Grantham of GMO says this is “no market for young men”. Maybe now I am over 50 it is my time! Yet my forecast of the S&P bottoming at 400 is still met with utter derision. I have been underweight global equities since the end of 1996 and...
- From Ice Age To Hyper-inflation With Socgen Bear
(Reuters) - Three months ago, with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its second major stimulus program and inflation pressures on the rise, Albert Edwards' bond market view stood out from the crowd. Societe Generale's famously bearish analyst,...
- Albert Edwards, Socgen Bear, Takes A Bite Out Of China
Thanks to Jason for passing this along.Analyst famous for his Ice Age thesis sees a new economic crisis on the wayStock markets ended 2010 on an upbeat note. The FTSE 100 index reclaimed the 6000 mark before slipping back, but still registered a 9% gain,...
- Albert Edwards: "we Are Returning To 450 On The S&p"
Via Zero Hedge. So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing...
Money and Finance
Albert victorious
IF THERE is one person who is pleased at recent events, it is Albert Edwards, currently the Societe Generale strategist but previously at Dresdner Kleinwort. He has been plugging his Ice Age thesis since 1996, arguing that much of the developed world would follow Japan in seeing both equity valuations and bond yields decline. And he has been sceptical throughout this rally, proving rather better at assessing events last year, for example, than the bulls at Goldman Sachs.
So Mr Edwards can be forgiven a note of triumphalism in his latest research note, bearing the title "They laughed. Oh yes, how they laughed. But they're not laughing now." His opening paragraph is suitably apocalyptic.
“As 30 year German bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge towards Japanese rates, we have a taster of what is to come in the US and UK in the months ahead. We still see US 10 year yields - even now making new all-time lows - falling below 1% as hard landings occur in china and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyse the third and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating. Expect the S&P 500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intra-day low. All hope will be crushed.”
…
“Amid the chaos, there is opportunity. The European cyclically-adjusted PE (CAPE) is back down to rock-bottom valuations, consistent with the bottom of previous long-term valuation bear markets and lower than that seen in March 2009. Investors are reluctant to invest amid all the ongoing chaos in the eurozone. But the macro backdrop ALWAYS looks awful when the market is this cheap. There are no such things as toxic assets, only toxic prices.”
- Albert Edwards: "the Market Is Once Again In A Hope Phase..."
One key lesson from Japan is that an essential ingredient to the end of a long valuation bear market is revulsion. It is when buyers-on-dips become sellers-on-rallies. It is when volume dries up to almost nothing. It is the loss of hope. In Japan we saw...
- Albert Edwards: The S&p At 400 Is Almost Inevitable
Jeremy Grantham of GMO says this is “no market for young men”. Maybe now I am over 50 it is my time! Yet my forecast of the S&P bottoming at 400 is still met with utter derision. I have been underweight global equities since the end of 1996 and...
- From Ice Age To Hyper-inflation With Socgen Bear
(Reuters) - Three months ago, with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its second major stimulus program and inflation pressures on the rise, Albert Edwards' bond market view stood out from the crowd. Societe Generale's famously bearish analyst,...
- Albert Edwards, Socgen Bear, Takes A Bite Out Of China
Thanks to Jason for passing this along.Analyst famous for his Ice Age thesis sees a new economic crisis on the wayStock markets ended 2010 on an upbeat note. The FTSE 100 index reclaimed the 6000 mark before slipping back, but still registered a 9% gain,...
- Albert Edwards: "we Are Returning To 450 On The S&p"
Via Zero Hedge. So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing...